Q1 likely to be the trough

Inventories still elevated, i.e. short-term rebound likely to be muted but the trough is near and expectations are low. 3.0x NTM EV/sales vs. historical average of 3.3x.

Database error correction

U-Blox: Negative read-across to Q1 Cellular

Garmin: 14% growth, but still high inventories

Dexcom: 26% org. growth in Q4

SLAB guides Q1 down 55-60% y-o-y

Down, but not beaten

We cut '24e-'25e sales by 25-27%. 2.9x NTM EV/sales vs. historical average of 3.3x. BUY: close to cycle trough and low expectations.

Q1 guidance 30-40% below cons

Avnet Q4: Distributor inventories still at ATH

Time to look past inventory corrections

High customer inventories point to soft Q1 guidance but historically ~60% avg. return NTM at current macro. 3.1x NTM EV/sales, vs. hist. avg. of 3.3x. BUY.

Logitech: done with inventory adjustments

Soft December revenue for Foxconn

Svenn-Tore Larsen stepping down as CEO

Stocks still high, but the stock is still a buy

Customer inventories remained high at the end of Q3, but historically ~60% avg. return NTM at current macro. Stock tends to bottom at 2.1-2.2x EV/sales.

Distributor inventories +30% above normal

SLAB: Guides Q4 down 60-70% y-o-y

U-Blox: 25m Cellular modules sold

Logitech: sequential improvement, lower inventories

Not at the trough yet, but getting close

No major rebound likely until Q2'24 at earliest. Cut '24e-'25e sales by ~20% and EBIT by 74-23%. Long-term case is still intact: BUY, TP NOK 145 (180).

Q4 guidance 17% below cons