More balanced risk reward from here

Weak Q1, adj. EBIT -37% y-o-y, and announced cost savings. We lower org. sales, but '24e-'26e adj. EPS +8-27% due to Red Lion. Share -17% YTD, valuation is looking fair(er) - up to HOLD (Sell).

Better than feared, but adj. EBIT -37% y-o-y

Japan MT orders: uptick in March

Acquisition of Red Lion completed

Rockwell: slower than anticipated orders

Less backlog support to hurt Q1 sales

Q1 results due on 16 April. Adj. EBIT -47% y-o-y on tough comps and lower deliveries. Great mid- and long-term story, but too dearly priced. SELL.

Japan MT orders: neutral m-o-m

Japan MT orders: downtick in January

Robotic orders still declining, but US troughing

Order backlog protection gradually abating

Impressive deliveries, but weaker orders

Too early to get excited

Accretive M&A, but near-term outlook remains soft. Neg. earnings growth to weigh on the share. We maintain SELL with a higher TP of SEK 385.

Japan MT orders: uptick in Dec

Going big in the US

Japan MT orders: largely flat m/m

Too dearly valued for neg. EBIT growth '24e

Destocking & and operational leverage headwind to hurt '24e EBIT. We make small estimate revisions, and see '24e EBIT -21% y-o-y. Quality company, but we maintain SELL at 29x '24e EV/EBIT.

Robotic orders continue to trend down

Unexciting 2024e margin outlook

15% EBIT beat, but org. orders -25% y-o-y. We cut '24e EBIT by 7% on 2% lower sales. Down to SELL (Hold) on negative EBIT growth in '24e (-22%).

Better PnL but weaker orders

We see downside risk after a likely solid Q3

We expect HMS' Q3 results to be similar to previous quarters, with negative organic orders but with earnings finding support from deliveries of its still-strong order backlog.