Norway: One downgrade — three top picks

Muted market outlook - some signs of improvement. Selvaag Bolig down to HOLD (Buy). We favour AFG, MULTI, and VEI.

Share has outpaced short-term fundamentals

Q1e: ABGSC is 21% below consensus. UP: Divi cut likely in a prolonged distressed market. Down to HOLD (Buy), TP NOK 40 (45)

Market likely to turn up in 2024

Q4: Figures below on lower prices - H2'23 DPS NOK 1. UP: Divi cut likely the full downside of prolonged distressed market. ABGSCe: >NOK 900m in available liquidity in '24e.

Figures below on lower realised prices

Strong pipeline when the market returns

Q4e: We are slightly below consensus. UP: Divi cut likely the full downside of prolonged distressed market. ABGSCe: >NOK 1bn in available liquidity in '24e.

SBO sold 88 units in Q4'23

A deep dive into Urban Property

Q3: No surprises. UP: Divi cut the full downside of prolonged distressed markets. ABGSCe: >NOK 1bn in available liquidity in '24e.

Q3 in line - disclosing UP covenants

Pressure on volumes but better visibility

Q3e: EBIT NOK 26m. Fornebu a hidden gem – land plot values of >NOK 12 per share. 8% dividend yield on ’24e-’25e: BUY, TP NOK 45.

SBO sold 77 units in Q3'23

Lower project margins in the short-term

Figures below on weaker project margins

Norway: Q2'23 - Two recommendation changes

Strong order intake, but lower building activity expected. Two recommendation changes. We favour AFG, SBO, and SSG.

Patience will be rewarded

Q2e: We are 15% below Bloomberg consensus. Fornebu a hidden gem - land plot values of >NOK 12 per share. 9-12% dividend yield on ’23e-’25e: BUY, TP of NOK 52.

79 units sold and 83 units started in Q2

Good performance in a tough market

Q1: Figures broadly in line. Fornebu a hidden gem - land plot values of >NOK 12 per share. 10-13% dividend yield on ’23e-’25e. BUY.

Reported figures inline - pressure on NGAAP margins

A tough market in the short term

Q1e: EBIT NOK 78m vs. consensus NOK 99m. Fornebu a hidden gem - land plot values of >NOK 12 per share. 9-10% dividend yield on ’23e-’25e.

116 units sold in Q1

Norway: Best ideas Q1'23