Heads-up for report 24 April

The Capital Goods Data Miner - April 2024

Our key long ideas are: Alfa Laval, Assa Abloy, Hexagon, Metso, Volvo. We are cautious on: Autoliv, Nibe, Wärtsilä

Q1e: Toothless downcycle increasingly discounted

Flat earnings as bad as it gets in mild downturn. Deep-cyclicals now partly de-risked, so value opportunities fewer. Epiroc and Hexpol down to HOLD; prefer Alfa, Assa, Metso, Hexagon, Volvo.

Organic growth to dip below zero, then rebound

Q1 results due on 24 April at 08:00 CET. Expect organic growth of -1%, margin of 15.3% (16.0%). Share has been good, but still some upside – BUY.

The Capital Goods Data Miner - March 2024

Our key long ideas are: Alfa Laval, Assa Abloy, Volvo. We are cautious on: Autoliv, Saab, Wärtsilä.

One-offs - they rarely stop at one ('24 update)

Exceptional situations pass, new ones arise. XO items in 2023 a new record, 8% of adj. EBITA. Consistently low charges in NIBE, HPOL, ATCO, EPI, KONE.

The Capital Goods Data Miner - February 2024

Our key long ideas are: Alfa Laval, Assa Abloy, Volvo. We are cautious on: Autoliv, Wärtsilä.

Allegion guides for 1.5-3.5% growth in Americas

CFO sell-side lunch

European bred, US dollar fed

Majority of Assa is now North America vs . 30% a decade ago. A market with much higher growth and returns. Better profile than historically, yet lower multiple – BUY.

American money machine

Q4 organic growth in line, adj. EBIT -2%, good cash flow. Americas strength + FX drive adj. EBIT +3%. Value gap partly but not fully closed, keep BUY.

Organic growth in line, margin 20bps light

Heads-up for report 7 February

Q4e: Some cyclical upside realised, some left

Earnings hold up on big backlogs; PMIs have turned, but only slowly. Meanwhile, stocks have bounced, multiples back to normal. We favour Alfa Laval, Epiroc, Metso, SKF and Volvo.

Depressed markets, solid execution

Q4 results due on 7 February at 08:00 CET. Expect flat organic growth, margin of 15.7% (15.7%). Share has been good, but still some upside – BUY.

The Capital Goods Data Miner – January 2024

Our key long ideas are:Alfa Laval, Metso, Volvo. We are cautious on:Autoliv, Kone,Wärtsilä.

The Capital Goods Data Miner – December 2023

Our key long ideas are: Alfa Laval, Sandvik, SKF, Volvo. We are cautious on: Autoliv, Epiroc, Kone, Wärtsilä.

The Capital Goods Data Miner - November 2023

Our key long ideas are Sandvik, SKF, Volvo. We are cautious on Autoliv, Epiroc, Wärtsilä.

Weak October ABI could weigh on Americas growth expectations

Capital Goods: Q3 trends, ests., valuation, top picks

Q3 again showed stronger margins, but slightly lower orders. Aggregate adj. EBIT’23-25 was unchanged. Sandvik, SKF and Volvo are top picks.