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ABGSC Consumer Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Consumer Goods Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Fredrik Ivarsson
PREMIUM
ELUX.B-SE ELECTROLUX

Lack of bright signals

Unchanged market conditions from Q4. We forecast adj. EBIT of SEK -0.8bn. Reiterate HOLD, TP raised to SEK 98 (95).

04/16/24 April 16, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm
PREMIUM
ABB ABB LTD.
NIBE.B-SE NIBE ... (+18)

Q1e: Toothless downcycle increasingly discounted

Flat earnings as bad as it gets in mild downturn. Deep-cyclicals now partly de-risked, so value opportunities fewer. Epiroc and Hexpol down to HOLD; prefer Alfa, Assa, Metso, Hexagon, Volvo.

ABB ABB LTD.
NIBE.B-SE NIBE
ALFA-SE ALFA LAVAL
MTRS-SE MUNTERS
SKF.B-SE SKF
ASSA.B-SE ASSA ABLOY
ATCO.A-SE ATLAS COPCO
ALIV-SE AUTOLIV
ELUX.B-SE ELECTROLUX
EPI.A-SE EPIROC
HEXA.B-SE HEXAGON
HPOL.B-SE HEXPOL
KNEBV-FI KONE
SAND-SE SANDVIK
TREL.B-SE TRELLEBORG
VOLV.B-SE VOLVO
WRT1V-FI WARTSILA
METSO-FI METSO
04/11/24 April 11, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Consumer Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Consumer Goods Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Fredrik Ivarsson
PREMIUM
BHG-SE BHG GROUP
BOOZT-SE BOOZT ... (+19)

Swedish sector top picks post Q4 reports

Soft org. growth but strong margin expansion among mid/large caps. E-commerce penetration back to growth. We highlight Axfood, H&M, Rugvista and RVRC as top picks.

BHG-SE BHG GROUP
BOOZT-SE BOOZT
LYKO.A-SE LYKO
RVRC-SE RVRC HOLDING
RUG-SE RUGVISTA GROUP
BMAX-SE BYGGMAX
EMBELL-SE EMBELLENCE GROUP
SVED.B-SE SVEDBERGS
ELUX.B-SE ELECTROLUX
HM.B-SE HENNES & MAURITZ
KESKOB-FI KESKO
AXFO-SE AXFOOD
HUSQ.B-SE HUSQVARNA
DOM-SE DOMETIC
MSON.B-SE MIDSONA
HUMBLE-SE HUMBLE GROUP
PNDORA-DK PANDORA
VIVA-SE VIVA WINE GROUP
THULE-SE THULE GROUP
03/08/24 March 8, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm
PREMIUM
NIBE.B-SE NIBE
ALFA-SE ALFA LAVAL ... (+17)

One-offs - they rarely stop at one ('24 update)

Exceptional situations pass, new ones arise. XO items in 2023 a new record, 8% of adj. EBITA. Consistently low charges in NIBE, HPOL, ATCO, EPI, KONE.

NIBE.B-SE NIBE
ALFA-SE ALFA LAVAL
MTRS-SE MUNTERS
SKF.B-SE SKF
ASSA.B-SE ASSA ABLOY
ATCO.A-SE ATLAS COPCO
ALIV-SE AUTOLIV
ELUX.B-SE ELECTROLUX
EPI.A-SE EPIROC
HEXA.B-SE HEXAGON
HPOL.B-SE HEXPOL
KNEBV-FI KONE
SAND-SE SANDVIK
TREL.B-SE TRELLEBORG
VOLV.B-SE VOLVO
WRT1V-FI WARTSILA
ABB-SE ABB
03/08/24 March 8, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Consumer Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Consumer Goods Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Fredrik Ivarsson
PREMIUM
ELUX.B-SE ELECTROLUX

The waiting game: another soft quarter ahead

The US market likely to stay tough throughout the year. Change of analysts, significant est. revisions post -soft Q4. Reiterate HOLD, TP cut to SEK 95 (100).

02/06/24 February 6, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm
PREMIUM
NIBE.B-SE NIBE
ALFA-SE ALFA LAVAL ... (+18)

Q4e: Some cyclical upside realised, some left

Earnings hold up on big backlogs; PMIs have turned, but only slowly. Meanwhile, stocks have bounced, multiples back to normal. We favour Alfa Laval, Epiroc, Metso, SKF and Volvo.

NIBE.B-SE NIBE
ALFA-SE ALFA LAVAL
MTRS-SE MUNTERS
SKF.B-SE SKF
ASSA.B-SE ASSA ABLOY
ATCO.A-SE ATLAS COPCO
ALIV-SE AUTOLIV
ELUX.B-SE ELECTROLUX
EPI.A-SE EPIROC
HEXA.B-SE HEXAGON
HPOL.B-SE HEXPOL
KNEBV-FI KONE
SAND-SE SANDVIK
TREL.B-SE TRELLEBORG
VOLV.B-SE VOLVO
WRT1V-FI WARTSILA
ABB-SE ABB
METSO-FI METSO
01/15/24 January 15, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Olof Cederholm
01/14/24 January 14, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm
PREMIUM
NIBE.B-SE NIBE
ALFA-SE ALFA LAVAL ... (+18)

The Capital Goods Data Miner – January 2024

Our key long ideas are:Alfa Laval, Metso, Volvo. We are cautious on:Autoliv, Kone,Wärtsilä.

NIBE.B-SE NIBE
ALFA-SE ALFA LAVAL
MTRS-SE MUNTERS
SKF.B-SE SKF
ASSA.B-SE ASSA ABLOY
ATCO.A-SE ATLAS COPCO
ALIV-SE AUTOLIV
ELUX.B-SE ELECTROLUX
EPI.A-SE EPIROC
HEXA.B-SE HEXAGON
HPOL.B-SE HEXPOL
KNEBV-FI KONE
SAND-SE SANDVIK
TREL.B-SE TRELLEBORG
VOLV.B-SE VOLVO
WRT1V-FI WARTSILA
ABB-SE ABB
METSO-FI METSO
01/09/24 January 9, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm
PREMIUM
NIBE.B-SE NIBE
ALFA-SE ALFA LAVAL ... (+18)

The Capital Goods Data Miner – December 2023

Our key long ideas are: Alfa Laval, Sandvik, SKF, Volvo. We are cautious on: Autoliv, Epiroc, Kone, Wärtsilä.

NIBE.B-SE NIBE
ALFA-SE ALFA LAVAL
MTRS-SE MUNTERS
SKF.B-SE SKF
ASSA.B-SE ASSA ABLOY
ATCO.A-SE ATLAS COPCO
ALIV-SE AUTOLIV
ELUX.B-SE ELECTROLUX
EPI.A-SE EPIROC
HEXA.B-SE HEXAGON
HPOL.B-SE HEXPOL
KNEBV-FI KONE
SAND-SE SANDVIK
TREL.B-SE TRELLEBORG
VOLV.B-SE VOLVO
WRT1V-FI WARTSILA
ABB-SE ABB
METSO-FI METSO
12/12/23 December 12, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm
PREMIUM
NIBE.B-SE NIBE
ALFA-SE ALFA LAVAL ... (+18)

The Capital Goods Data Miner - November 2023

Our key long ideas are Sandvik, SKF, Volvo. We are cautious on Autoliv, Epiroc, Wärtsilä.

NIBE.B-SE NIBE
ALFA-SE ALFA LAVAL
MTRS-SE MUNTERS
SKF.B-SE SKF
ASSA.B-SE ASSA ABLOY
ATCO.A-SE ATLAS COPCO
ALIV-SE AUTOLIV
ELUX.B-SE ELECTROLUX
EPI.A-SE EPIROC
HEXA.B-SE HEXAGON
HPOL.B-SE HEXPOL
KNEBV-FI KONE
SAND-SE SANDVIK
TREL.B-SE TRELLEBORG
VOLV.B-SE VOLVO
WRT1V-FI WARTSILA
ABB-SE ABB
METSO-FI METSO
11/20/23 November 20, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm
PREMIUM
ALFA-SE ALFA LAVAL
MTRS-SE MUNTERS ... (+17)

Capital Goods: Q3 trends, ests., valuation, top picks

Q3 again showed stronger margins, but slightly lower orders. Aggregate adj. EBIT’23-25 was unchanged. Sandvik, SKF and Volvo are top picks.

ALFA-SE ALFA LAVAL
MTRS-SE MUNTERS
SKF.B-SE SKF
ASSA.B-SE ASSA ABLOY
ATCO.A-SE ATLAS COPCO
ALIV-SE AUTOLIV
ELUX.B-SE ELECTROLUX
EPI.A-SE EPIROC
HEXA.B-SE HEXAGON
HPOL.B-SE HEXPOL
KNEBV-FI KONE
SAND-SE SANDVIK
TREL.B-SE TRELLEBORG
VOLV.B-SE VOLVO
WRT1V-FI WARTSILA
ABB-SE ABB
METSO-FI METSO
11/02/23 November 2, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Olof Cederholm
PREMIUM
ELUX.B-SE ELECTROLUX

Pressure on earnings far from over

Very weak Q3 EBIT, with Q4 set to be even worse. New cost savings programme needed to restore margins. We lower '23-'24e adj. EBIT by 54% and 16%, TP SEK 100 (130).

10/29/23 October 29, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Olof Cederholm
10/27/23 October 27, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm
PREMIUM
NIBE.B-SE NIBE
ALFA-SE ALFA LAVAL ... (+18)

Q3e: Controlled slowdown as sentiment bottoms out

Gently slowing demand, strong margins; estimates unchanged. Valuation now 10% lower than history, just as PMI's appear to bottom out. Look for short-cycle value, top picks Sandvik, SKF, Volvo.

NIBE.B-SE NIBE
ALFA-SE ALFA LAVAL
MTRS-SE MUNTERS
SKF.B-SE SKF
ASSA.B-SE ASSA ABLOY
ATCO.A-SE ATLAS COPCO
ALIV-SE AUTOLIV
ELUX.B-SE ELECTROLUX
EPI.A-SE EPIROC
HEXA.B-SE HEXAGON
HPOL.B-SE HEXPOL
KNEBV-FI KONE
SAND-SE SANDVIK
TREL.B-SE TRELLEBORG
VOLV.B-SE VOLVO
WRT1V-FI WARTSILA
ABB-SE ABB
METSO-FI METSO
10/09/23 October 9, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Olof Cederholm
PREMIUM
ELUX.B-SE ELECTROLUX

Headwinds persist

Q3'23 report due on 27 October. Struggles continue with FX headwinds strengthening. Maintain HOLD, will take time for earnings to recover.

10/09/23 October 9, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm
PREMIUM
NIBE.B-SE NIBE
ALFA-SE ALFA LAVAL ... (+18)

The Capital Goods Data Miner – October 2023

Our key long ideas are: Sandvik, SKF, Volvo. We are cautious on: Autoliv, Wärtsilä.

NIBE.B-SE NIBE
ALFA-SE ALFA LAVAL
MTRS-SE MUNTERS
SKF.B-SE SKF
ASSA.B-SE ASSA ABLOY
ATCO.A-SE ATLAS COPCO
ALIV-SE AUTOLIV
ELUX.B-SE ELECTROLUX
EPI.A-SE EPIROC
HEXA.B-SE HEXAGON
HPOL.B-SE HEXPOL
KNEBV-FI KONE
SAND-SE SANDVIK
TREL.B-SE TRELLEBORG
VOLV.B-SE VOLVO
WRT1V-FI WARTSILA
ABB-SE ABB
METSO-FI METSO
10/05/23 October 5, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm
ALFA-SE ALFA LAVAL
SKF.B-SE SKF
ASSA.B-SE ASSA ABLOY
ATCO.A-SE ATLAS COPCO
ALIV-SE AUTOLIV
ELUX.B-SE ELECTROLUX
EPI.A-SE EPIROC
HEXA.B-SE HEXAGON
KNEBV-FI KONE
SAND-SE SANDVIK
TREL.B-SE TRELLEBORG
VOLV.B-SE VOLVO
WRT1V-FI WARTSILA
ABB-SE ABB
09/27/23 September 27, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm
PREMIUM
NIBE.B-SE NIBE
ALFA-SE ALFA LAVAL ... (+18)

The Capital Goods Data Miner – September 2023

Our key long ideas are: Sandvik, SKF, Volvo. We are cautious on: Autoliv, Wärtsilä.

NIBE.B-SE NIBE
ALFA-SE ALFA LAVAL
MTRS-SE MUNTERS
SKF.B-SE SKF
ASSA.B-SE ASSA ABLOY
ATCO.A-SE ATLAS COPCO
ALIV-SE AUTOLIV
ELUX.B-SE ELECTROLUX
EPI.A-SE EPIROC
HEXA.B-SE HEXAGON
HPOL.B-SE HEXPOL
KNEBV-FI KONE
SAND-SE SANDVIK
TREL.B-SE TRELLEBORG
VOLV.B-SE VOLVO
WRT1V-FI WARTSILA
ABB-SE ABB
METSO-FI METSO
09/11/23 September 11, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm
PREMIUM
NIBE.B-SE NIBE
ALFA-SE ALFA LAVAL ... (+17)

The Capital Goods Data Miner – August 2023

Our key long ideas are: Sandvik, SKF, Volvo. We are cautious on: Autoliv, Wärtsilä.

NIBE.B-SE NIBE
ALFA-SE ALFA LAVAL
MTRS-SE MUNTERS
SKF.B-SE SKF
ASSA.B-SE ASSA ABLOY
ATCO.A-SE ATLAS COPCO
ALIV-SE AUTOLIV
ELUX.B-SE ELECTROLUX
EPI.A-SE EPIROC
HEXA.B-SE HEXAGON
HPOL.B-SE HEXPOL
KNEBV-FI KONE
SAND-SE SANDVIK
TREL.B-SE TRELLEBORG
VOLV.B-SE VOLVO
WRT1V-FI WARTSILA
ABB-SE ABB
08/17/23 August 17, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm
PREMIUM
ALFA-SE ALFA LAVAL
MTRS-SE MUNTERS ... (+17)

Capital Goods: Q2 trends, ests., valuation, top picks

Strong Q2 results with ATH margins. ’24e EBIT upgraded 3%, valuation on average levels. Prefer Sandvik, SKF, Volvo; Metso de-rated over Q2.

ALFA-SE ALFA LAVAL
MTRS-SE MUNTERS
SKF.B-SE SKF
ASSA.B-SE ASSA ABLOY
ATCO.A-SE ATLAS COPCO
ALIV-SE AUTOLIV
ELUX.B-SE ELECTROLUX
EPI.A-SE EPIROC
HEXA.B-SE HEXAGON
HPOL.B-SE HEXPOL
KNEBV-FI KONE
SAND-SE SANDVIK
TREL.B-SE TRELLEBORG
VOLV.B-SE VOLVO
WRT1V-FI WARTSILA
ABB-SE ABB
METSO-FI METSO
07/31/23 July 31, 2023 1 EN
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