Margin falls short again (with deviation table)

The Capital Goods Data Miner - April 2024

Our key long ideas are: Alfa Laval, Assa Abloy, Hexagon, Metso, Volvo. We are cautious on: Autoliv, Nibe, Wärtsilä

Heads-up for report 23 April

Q1e: Toothless downcycle increasingly discounted

Flat earnings as bad as it gets in mild downturn. Deep-cyclicals now partly de-risked, so value opportunities fewer. Epiroc and Hexpol down to HOLD; prefer Alfa, Assa, Metso, Hexagon, Volvo.

Margin uncertainty prevents further re-rating

Q1 results due on 23 April at 08:00 CET. We expect orders -2%, margin 20.9% (23.0%). Stock up despite unresolved margin question marks - HOLD.

The Capital Goods Data Miner - March 2024

Our key long ideas are: Alfa Laval, Assa Abloy, Volvo. We are cautious on: Autoliv, Saab, Wärtsilä.

One-offs - they rarely stop at one ('24 update)

Exceptional situations pass, new ones arise. XO items in 2023 a new record, 8% of adj. EBITA. Consistently low charges in NIBE, HPOL, ATCO, EPI, KONE.

The Capital Goods Data Miner - February 2024

Our key long ideas are: Alfa Laval, Assa Abloy, Volvo. We are cautious on: Autoliv, Wärtsilä.

Capital Goods: Post-Q4 Update

Outside of construction, most end-markets were solid, pricing and margins held up, and cash flow was strong. We think Alfa Laval, SKF and Volvo look attractive in H1’24.

Margin concerns have increased

5% adj. EBIT miss with unresolved margin questions. Adj. EBIT cut 3-4%, adj. EPS in '24e down by 8%. Still needs to reaffirm M&A-fuelled quality in attractive sector.

Question mark on margins remains

Heads-up for report 24 January

Q4e: Some cyclical upside realised, some left

Earnings hold up on big backlogs; PMIs have turned, but only slowly. Meanwhile, stocks have bounced, multiples back to normal. We favour Alfa Laval, Epiroc, Metso, SKF and Volvo.

Attractive again and appealing M&A

Q4 results due on 24 January at 11:30 CET. We expect orders +7%, margin 22.3% (23.9%). Stock lagging and accretive deal - up to BUY (Hold).

The Capital Goods Data Miner – January 2024

Our key long ideas are:Alfa Laval, Metso, Volvo. We are cautious on:Autoliv, Kone,Wärtsilä.

High-single digit acquired growth also in 2024

The Capital Goods Data Miner – December 2023

Our key long ideas are: Alfa Laval, Sandvik, SKF, Volvo. We are cautious on: Autoliv, Epiroc, Kone, Wärtsilä.

Sell-side dinner: technology drives barriers to entry

The Capital Goods Data Miner - November 2023

Our key long ideas are Sandvik, SKF, Volvo. We are cautious on Autoliv, Epiroc, Wärtsilä.

Mining soft patch mild and (probably) short-lived