Margin falls short again (with deviation table)

Still promising, but riskier after Q1 air pocket

Surprising drop in equipment deliveries; adj. EBITA -11% vs ABGSC. Should be timing, but risk of course higher; adj. EBITA'24e -3%. HOLD and TP SEK 245 (250) but H2 recovery closer.

Air pocket for mining deliveries

The Capital Goods Data Miner - April 2024

Our key long ideas are: Alfa Laval, Assa Abloy, Hexagon, Metso, Volvo. We are cautious on: Autoliv, Nibe, Wärtsilä

Heads-up for report 22 April

Heads-up for report 23 April

Q1e: Toothless downcycle increasingly discounted

Flat earnings as bad as it gets in mild downturn. Deep-cyclicals now partly de-risked, so value opportunities fewer. Epiroc and Hexpol down to HOLD; prefer Alfa, Assa, Metso, Hexagon, Volvo.

Margin uncertainty prevents further re-rating

Q1 results due on 23 April at 08:00 CET. We expect orders -2%, margin 20.9% (23.0%). Stock up despite unresolved margin question marks - HOLD.

Working through an earnings plateau

Q1 results due on 22 April at 11:30 CET. We estimate orders -4%, sales -1%, margin 20.4% (20.6%). Mining attraction about fairly valued - HOLD.

Strong stock has only partly caught up

Q1 results due on 25 April at 8:00 CET. We est. orders -10%, sales -2%, EBITA margin 16.7% (15.8%). Orders down in Q1 but back to growth in Q2; stock still cheap. BUY.

The Capital Goods Data Miner - March 2024

Our key long ideas are: Alfa Laval, Assa Abloy, Volvo. We are cautious on: Autoliv, Saab, Wärtsilä.

One-offs - they rarely stop at one ('24 update)

Exceptional situations pass, new ones arise. XO items in 2023 a new record, 8% of adj. EBITA. Consistently low charges in NIBE, HPOL, ATCO, EPI, KONE.

The Capital Goods Data Miner - February 2024

Our key long ideas are: Alfa Laval, Assa Abloy, Volvo. We are cautious on: Autoliv, Wärtsilä.

In this case, in line is positive

In-line orders and improved service and outlook surprise. Adj. EBITA'24-25 +0-1%, consensus looks cautious. Cash flow still a sore spot, but strong value support.

Order relief

Heads-up for report 16 February

Capital Goods: Post-Q4 Update

Outside of construction, most end-markets were solid, pricing and margins held up, and cash flow was strong. We think Alfa Laval, SKF and Volvo look attractive in H1’24.

Demand comforts, charges disturb

Slight margin slip, but some demand concerns quelled. Another restructuring charge taints earnings. Adj. EBITA unchanged, EPS down, keep HOLD.

Margin light but demand trends comforting

Margin concerns have increased

5% adj. EBIT miss with unresolved margin questions. Adj. EBIT cut 3-4%, adj. EPS in '24e down by 8%. Still needs to reaffirm M&A-fuelled quality in attractive sector.