Still promising, but riskier after Q1 air pocket

Surprising drop in equipment deliveries; adj. EBITA -11% vs ABGSC. Should be timing, but risk of course higher; adj. EBITA'24e -3%. HOLD and TP SEK 245 (250) but H2 recovery closer.

Air pocket for mining deliveries

The Capital Goods Data Miner - April 2024

Our key long ideas are: Alfa Laval, Assa Abloy, Hexagon, Metso, Volvo. We are cautious on: Autoliv, Nibe, Wärtsilä

Heads-up for report 22 April

Q1e: Toothless downcycle increasingly discounted

Flat earnings as bad as it gets in mild downturn. Deep-cyclicals now partly de-risked, so value opportunities fewer. Epiroc and Hexpol down to HOLD; prefer Alfa, Assa, Metso, Hexagon, Volvo.

Working through an earnings plateau

Q1 results due on 22 April at 11:30 CET. We estimate orders -4%, sales -1%, margin 20.4% (20.6%). Mining attraction about fairly valued - HOLD.

The Capital Goods Data Miner - March 2024

Our key long ideas are: Alfa Laval, Assa Abloy, Volvo. We are cautious on: Autoliv, Saab, Wärtsilä.

One-offs - they rarely stop at one ('24 update)

Exceptional situations pass, new ones arise. XO items in 2023 a new record, 8% of adj. EBITA. Consistently low charges in NIBE, HPOL, ATCO, EPI, KONE.

The Capital Goods Data Miner - February 2024

Our key long ideas are: Alfa Laval, Assa Abloy, Volvo. We are cautious on: Autoliv, Wärtsilä.

Capital Goods: Post-Q4 Update

Outside of construction, most end-markets were solid, pricing and margins held up, and cash flow was strong. We think Alfa Laval, SKF and Volvo look attractive in H1’24.

Demand comforts, charges disturb

Slight margin slip, but some demand concerns quelled. Another restructuring charge taints earnings. Adj. EBITA unchanged, EPS down, keep HOLD.

Margin light but demand trends comforting

Heads-up for report 25 January

Q4e: Some cyclical upside realised, some left

Earnings hold up on big backlogs; PMIs have turned, but only slowly. Meanwhile, stocks have bounced, multiples back to normal. We favour Alfa Laval, Epiroc, Metso, SKF and Volvo.

Relative valuation less attractive

Q4 results due on 25 January at 8:00 CET. We estimate orders -4%, sales -1%, margin 20.4% (20.6%). Mining strong, and SMM sentiment to turn – BUY.

The Capital Goods Data Miner – January 2024

Our key long ideas are:Alfa Laval, Metso, Volvo. We are cautious on:Autoliv, Kone,Wärtsilä.

The Capital Goods Data Miner – December 2023

Our key long ideas are: Alfa Laval, Sandvik, SKF, Volvo. We are cautious on: Autoliv, Epiroc, Kone, Wärtsilä.

Mining position impresses, SMM needs proof

The Capital Goods Data Miner - November 2023

Our key long ideas are Sandvik, SKF, Volvo. We are cautious on Autoliv, Epiroc, Wärtsilä.

CMD preview: targets maintained, strong mining, challenged SMM