Approaching IDS acceleration

Q1 showed encouraging Mobile Service growth and IDS rebound, with IDS growth accelerating in H2 – '24e EBITDA growth up 1%. Valuation remains too attractive: keep BUY, TP to EUR 50 (48)

Strong MSR growth and IDS recovery

Great entry has arrived - up to BUY

Q1'24e on 19 April: clockwork adj. EBITDA growth, up 3% y-o-y. 5G SA could support improved B2B outlook, IDS recovery nearing. '24e div. yield of 5.6%, '25e-'26e DPS and FCF CAGR >4% - BUY.

MWC 2024: what we learned

We attended the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona. Significant potential for improved 5G monetisation, leading to higher potential 5G capex.

Await a better entry – down to HOLD

Elevated capex in Q4'23 and '24 weighing on FCF, which we believe should hold the share back from outperforming. Down to HOLD – appealing long-term but await better entry.

Solid Q4, slower outlook - share c. -5% today

Defensive champ remains appealing

Q4'23 on 26 Jan: stable trends continue, EBITDA up 2% y-o-y. We expect a DPS of EUR 2.25, corresponding to a 5.3% div. yield. BUY stellar operational low-risk pick with slight valuation upside.

In-line not worth a dime

Q3 was largely in-line with expectations except slower IDS s-t, which sent the share down 7% - limited '24e-'25e revisions keeping us BUYers with an unchanged TP of EUR 50.

Decent as usual, but higher Q3 capex

What you see is what you get

Q3'23 results 19 Oct: stable market conditions and assuming IDS rebound; we expect EBITDA up 3% y-o-y. Change of analyst - we upgrade Elisa to BUY (Hold), TP EUR 50.

Monetising 5G

Q2: strong 5G driven service revenue growth continues. FY'23 outlook and estimates unchanged. Elisa delivers growth and cash flow in a challenged sector.

Q2'23e: growth continues

Higher costs no hindrance

Q1: stable EBITDA growth despite higher costs. FY '23-'25e estimates raised by 1%. Elisa delivers in challenging times: HOLD.

Q1'23e: energy costs in focus

Q1'23 results on 20 April: strong 5G growth continues. Q1 EBITDA growth challenged by higher energy costs.

Nordic consolidation back in focus

Telenor reportedly in merger talks with 3 Scandinavia. Valuation and regulatory approval remain major obstacles. Positive for Telenor, Telia, Tele2 but far from certain.

The start of a sustained recovery

Sector recovering from sharp H2'22 underperformance. '23e: positive growth outlook with cash flow to recover. Among Nordics we prefer Telenor and Telia Company.

CMD: confirmation of strategy and targets