Q1 trading update: Volumes 9% above

Downgrades sober the spot price party

Quality downgrades partly offset stronger spot prices, so our Q1 estimates are up only 3% ahead of the trading updates. Consensus a tad optimistic – we are still 6% below on Q1 EBIT.

Spared from troublesome Norwegian biology

We expect EBIT of NOK 677m, +11% vs consensus. Key uncertainty is price (premium) on large-sized fish. Good, not great Q1; Poor risk/reward, HOLD, TP NOK 545.

Norway: Updated traffic lights suggest lower growth

Returning to former glory

We lift our '24e EBIT (core) by +8% on Feed and Faroese prices. BAKKA is set for a strong H1'24 amid an ATH large-fish premium, but market leaves no room for error at '24e P/E 19x: HOLD

Q4 EBIT & DPS below, but H1 outlook intact

One step forward, one step back

Higher salmon prices as biology goes from bad to worse, but muted '24e EBIT impact; flipside is volumes down and costs up. The playing field is changing, but we remain sector BUYers.

Bio datapoints supportive, valuation is not

Q4e EBIT of DKK 373m (-7% vs. comp. collected cons.). '24e/'25e EBIT up 11%/17%, ABGSCe 6-8% below consensus. '24e-25e P/E of 20x-18x (vs. sector at 12-11x): HOLD.

Q4 trading update: Volumes in line

Harvest volumes in line, but slightly weaker mix. Feed sales 5% below ABGSCe. We see downside risk to Q4e/FY’23e EBIT, due to price and biological risk.

Cat's out of the bag

'24e EBIT (core) down 2% on lower volumes. Faroes to bridge soft Scotland awaiting post-smolt impact. '24e P/E 18x (vs. sector at 12x); HOLD, TP NOK 508 (494).

Q3: EBIT +3%, but soft guidance

Recent weakness offers a second chance

Market fundamentals look better than we feared, but sector is down 8% and consensus is now more aligned with us. We thus see improved risk/reward at '23e-24e P/E of 15-12x.

Another expectations reset

We estimate Q3 EBIT of DKK 230m (-22% vs. FactSet cons ensus). '23e/'24e EBIT -1%/-15% on Scotland reset and lower vols. Better alternatives elsewhere at '24e P/E 17x.

Scotland: Deep-dive beneath the surface

An extensive study of Scotland as a farming region. Operational turnarounds are viable, but likely to take time. We continue to favour MOWI and SSF (SALM/LSG JV) over BAKKA.

Q3 trading update: Volumes 9% below

Harvest volumes 9% below cons (-6% vs ABGSCe), and feed sales -11% below ABGSCe. We see downside risk to Q3e/FY’23e EBIT, mainly on UK biology.

History repeats itself

‘23e/'24e EBIT (core) down -11%/-10% on weaker Farming. Improvements should materialise, but H2'23 is too soon. We remain on the sidelines; HOLD, TP NOK 537.

Q2: EBIT in line, but more volumes at risk

Approaching the inflection point

Sector down 12% on weak spot-price sentiment since May. Some potential negative data points left, but set to turn in H2, and largely reflected with sector at '23e-'24e P/E of 15-12x. Our sector top-pick remains Mowi.

Turnarounds take time

We estimate Q2 EBIT of DKK 353m (as pre-announced). '23e EBIT -12% on soft Q2, margins and vols down. Risk/reward remains unappealing. HOLD.

Profit warning for Q2 on poor biological performance