Pulp leads the way

A long list of price increases. Q1e EBIT up q-o-q: lower maintenance costs. Smart to buy when macro is low - and to find the best players LT.

Q1 preview

Billerud will report its next quarterly results on 24 April. We reiterate BUY with a TP of SEK 110. Q1e EBIT of SEK 370m.

Pulling the right levers

Q4 adj. EBIT of SEK 53m, Q1 likely SEK 400-530m. LPB prices +9% and targeting SEK 700m cost savings in '24. Mid-cycle value potential of ~SEK 170/sh. BUY.

Q4 EBITDA 9% below. LPB price +5% from Q1

Two steps forward, one step back

Price hike efforts on early-cyclicals. Q4e EBIT down q-o-q, seasonality and prices. Finding the best players LT - smart to buy when macro is low.

Q4 preview

Billerud will report its next quarterly results on 25 January. We reiterate BUY with a TP of SEK 110 (120). Q4e EBIT of SEK -122m.

Everything went great by the numbers

Q3 adj. EBIT of SEK 470m, Q4 likely SEK 200-300m. Billerud targets ~SEK 700m cost savings in '24 vs. '23. Value potential of >SEK 170/sh. BUY.

Big beat - EBITDA 92% above cons

Trying to find a higher trough

Pulp and containerboard appear in better shape. Q3e EBIT flat q-o-q. Less destocking into Q4? Smart to buy when macro is low, valuation already down.

Too cheap to ignore

Up to BUY (Hold), TP SEK 120 (95). EV/CE ~0.9x vs. historical average 1.35x. Value potential of >SEK 170/sh.

Everything went wrong by the numbers in Q2

Q2 EBIT loss of SEK -496m, Q3 likely SEK -200m. More bad news to follow. Volumes will recover though. Seems underpriced post Verso. HOLD.

A weak quarter incl outlook

Leading indicators for OECD industrial production

OECD: The indicator points up a bit from a low level. IP growth has dropped. US: The indicator points up a bit from a low level (housing starts, monetary policy, real FX). EU: The indicator points down (monetary policy, bond yields, real FX). Japan: The indicator is neutral (monetary policy vs hous

Pulp & Paper: Pulp down and wood up

Not a great combo for earnings. Paper needs capacity cuts. Q2e EBIT down q-o-q, lower prices, weak volumes. Valuation down, smart to buy when macro is low.

Q2 preview

Q2 is known, focus on Q3e: EBIT of SEK +90m. For full assumptions see our newest sector report from 29 June: Pulp down and wood up.

Negative news from Billerud and Stora

EBIT to get worse before it gets better

Another weak report

Paper demand too weak for comfort

Pulp & Paper: Paper is the loser again, more capacity cuts needed. Q1e EBIT down q-o-q, lower volumes and prices. Valuation below normal, ATRoCE high.

Q1 preview

Q1e EBIT of SEK 800-850m. For full assumptions see our sector report from 13 April, Paper demand too weak for comfort.