Pulp leads the way

A long list of price increases. Q1e EBIT up q-o-q: lower maintenance costs. Smart to buy when macro is low - and to find the best players LT.

Go with the flow

Better momentum and market balances. Upside to our mid-cycle value of EUR 18-20/sh. Q1e clean EBIT of ~EUR 102m. BUY (Hold), TP EUR 14.5 (11.5).

Q1 preview

Billerud will report its next quarterly results on 24 April. We reiterate BUY with a TP of SEK 110. Q1e EBIT of SEK 370m.

A slower recovery

Clean EBIT EUR 51m was in line. However, the '24 EBIT guidance of EUR 390-513m was below. EV/CE 0.85x vs. the financial crisis level at 0.7x. HOLD.

Q4 in-line, outlook better

Pulling the right levers

Q4 adj. EBIT of SEK 53m, Q1 likely SEK 400-530m. LPB prices +9% and targeting SEK 700m cost savings in '24. Mid-cycle value potential of ~SEK 170/sh. BUY.

Q4 EBITDA 9% below. LPB price +5% from Q1

Two steps forward, one step back

Price hike efforts on early-cyclicals. Q4e EBIT down q-o-q, seasonality and prices. Finding the best players LT - smart to buy when macro is low.

Q4 preview

Stora will report its next quarterly results on 1 February. We reiterate HOLD with a TP of EUR 13 (12). Q4'23e operational EBIT of EUR ~50m.

Q4 preview

Billerud will report its next quarterly results on 25 January. We reiterate BUY with a TP of SEK 110 (120). Q4e EBIT of SEK -122m.

Everything went great by the numbers

Q3 adj. EBIT of SEK 470m, Q4 likely SEK 200-300m. Billerud targets ~SEK 700m cost savings in '24 vs. '23. Value potential of >SEK 170/sh. BUY.

Big beat - EBITDA 92% above cons

A step in the right direction

Clean EBIT EUR 21m, in line with consensus. Pulp: from destocking to restocking. EV/CE 0.8x vs. the financial crisis at 0.7x. HOLD.

Q3 figures in-line

Trying to find a higher trough

Pulp and containerboard appear in better shape. Q3e EBIT flat q-o-q. Less destocking into Q4? Smart to buy when macro is low, valuation already down.

Too cheap to ignore

Up to BUY (Hold), TP SEK 120 (95). EV/CE ~0.9x vs. historical average 1.35x. Value potential of >SEK 170/sh.

Q3 preview

Stora will report its next quarterly results on 24 October. We reiterate HOLD with a TP of EUR 12.5 (10.5). Q3'23e operational EBIT of EUR ~15m.

Weaker for longer

Q2: Clean EBIT -67% below, Q3 could see EBIT break-even. The price direction is down - HOLD.

EBIT -67% below - headwinds from all angles

Everything went wrong by the numbers in Q2

Q2 EBIT loss of SEK -496m, Q3 likely SEK -200m. More bad news to follow. Volumes will recover though. Seems underpriced post Verso. HOLD.