Buying time with new projects

Q1 EBITDA a bit better, insurance one-off can help in Q2/Q3. Paper is improving – better demand and 10% supply cuts. Walking a tightrope in '24 – unnecessarily tight balance sheet.

Pulp leads the way

A long list of price increases. Q1e EBIT up q-o-q: lower maintenance costs. Smart to buy when macro is low - and to find the best players LT.

Go with the flow

Better momentum and market balances. Upside to our mid-cycle value of EUR 18-20/sh. Q1e clean EBIT of ~EUR 102m. BUY (Hold), TP EUR 14.5 (11.5).

Current set-up more favourable for cyclicals

Huhtamaki will report its next quarterly results on 25 April. We downgrade to HOLD (Buy) with a TP of EUR 41 (44). We arrive at clean EBIT of EUR 96m for Q1'24e.

Q1 preview

Borregaard will report its next quarterly results on 24 April. We reiterate BUY with a TP of NOK 205 (200). Q1'24e EBITDA of NOK 397m.

Q1 preview

Essity will report its next quarterly results on 25 April. We reiterate BUY with a TP of SEK 290. Our model indicates a clean EBITA of ~SEK 4.35bn for Q1'24e.

Q1 preview

Elopak will report its quarterly results on 8 May. We reiterate BUY with a TP of NOK 36 (34). Q1e: Adj. EBITDA of EUR 41m.

Q1 preview

SCA will report its next quarterly results on 26 April. We reiterate BUY with a TP of SEK 175 (165). We estimate clean Q1'24e EBIT of ~SEK 960m.

Q1 preview

Metsa Board will report its next quarterly results on 25 April. We reiterate HOLD with a TP of EUR 7.8. Q1'24e EBIT at EUR 26m.

Q1 preview

Norske will report its next quarterly results on 19 April. We reiterate BUY with a TP of NOK 38 (41). Q1'24e EBITDA of NOK 5m.

Q1 preview

Nordic Paper will report its next quarterly results on 25 April. We reiterate BUY with a TP of SEK 62 (48). Q1'24e EBITDA of ~SEK 192m.

Q1 preview

Billerud will report its next quarterly results on 24 April. We reiterate BUY with a TP of SEK 110. Q1e EBIT of SEK 370m.

Q1 preview

Holmen will report its next results on 26 April. We reiterate buy with a TP of SEK 470 (450). Q1e EBIT of SEK 790m.

Q1 preview

UPM will report its next quarterly results on 25 April. We reiterate BUY with a TP of EUR 36 (38). Q1'24e EBIT of EUR 265m.

Delivering as promised

Q4 was OK - potential for higher prices. MTM EBITDA EUR 160-175m - adj. EPS ~NOK 2.8. 30% discount to peers - targets point to NOK 50/sh.

Q4 was in-line

Ending a muted year with a positive outlook

Clean EBIT of EUR 0.7m vs. cons EUR 5.5m. Market balance still challenged. Kemi and Husum projects could add >50% to EBIT.

Walking a tightrope in '24

Q4 clean EBITDA 3% vs cons. Q1 likely down. Price direction still down with gas. Unnecessarily tight balance sheet, share down to the paper value. BUY.

Packing up the year in style

Q4: EBIT 8% above consensus. Slightly better volumes vs. H1'23. DCF value points to ~EUR 50/share.

EBIT miss overshadowed by positive guidance