Pulp leads the way

A long list of price increases. Q1e EBIT up q-o-q: lower maintenance costs. Smart to buy when macro is low - and to find the best players LT.

Q1 preview

Borregaard will report its next quarterly results on 24 April. We reiterate BUY with a TP of NOK 205 (200). Q1'24e EBITDA of NOK 397m.

Potential for higher volumes and prices

EBITDA +13% vs. consensus, a bit above PW. Potential for higher volumes and higher specialty cellulose prices. MTM EPS of NOK +10, long-term NOK +12.

Q4 EBITDA: A bit above PW indications

Two steps forward, one step back

Price hike efforts on early-cyclicals. Q4e EBIT down q-o-q, seasonality and prices. Finding the best players LT - smart to buy when macro is low.

Q4 preview

Borregaard will report its next quarterly results on 31 January. We reiterate BUY and our TP of NOK 190. Q4'23e EBITDA of NOK ~295m.

PW: Production hiccups, lower vanillin demand

Better numbers and market balance

Q3 EBITDA 5% above

Trying to find a higher trough

Pulp and containerboard appear in better shape. Q3e EBIT flat q-o-q. Less destocking into Q4? Smart to buy when macro is low, valuation already down.

Q3 preview

Borregaard will report its next quarterly results on 24 October. We reiterate BUY: TP of NOK 190. Q3'23e EBITDA of NOK ~460m.

A Fine Q2, muted volume outlook

Q1 EBITDA of NOK 435m was up 9% y-o-y and 3% above consensus. We keep BUY, TP up to NOK 210 (200).

Q2: All-time-high, again

Leading indicators for OECD industrial production

OECD: The indicator points up a bit from a low level. IP growth has dropped. US: The indicator points up a bit from a low level (housing starts, monetary policy, real FX). EU: The indicator points down (monetary policy, bond yields, real FX). Japan: The indicator is neutral (monetary policy vs hous

Pulp & Paper: Pulp down and wood up

Not a great combo for earnings. Paper needs capacity cuts. Q2e EBIT down q-o-q, lower prices, weak volumes. Valuation down, smart to buy when macro is low.

Q2 preview

Our y-o-y model gives Q2 EBITDA of NOK ~469m. For full assumptions see our newest sector report from 29 June: Pulp down and wood up.

High prices, lower costs and a weak NOK

Q1 EBITDA of NOK 435m was up 9% y-o-y and 3% above consensus. We keep BUY, TP up to NOK 210 (200).

Q1 EBITDA +3%

Paper demand too weak for comfort

Pulp & Paper: Paper is the loser again, more capacity cuts needed. Q1e EBIT down q-o-q, lower volumes and prices. Valuation below normal, ATRoCE high.

Q1 preview

Our y-o-y model gives Q1 EBITDA of NOK ~400m. For full assumptions see our sector report from 13 April, Paper demand too weak for comfort.