Pulp leads the way

A long list of price increases. Q1e EBIT up q-o-q: lower maintenance costs. Smart to buy when macro is low - and to find the best players LT.

Q1 preview

Holmen will report its next results on 26 April. We reiterate buy with a TP of SEK 470 (450). Q1e EBIT of SEK 790m.

Late-, not early-cyclical

Q4 EBIT -14% due to weak Paperboard margins. Late-cyclical paper and cartonboard prices still under pressure. Decent valuation support, SOTP SEK 536/share.

Q4 EBIT -14%

Two steps forward, one step back

Price hike efforts on early-cyclicals. Q4e EBIT down q-o-q, seasonality and prices. Finding the best players LT - smart to buy when macro is low.

The force is strong with this one

Holmen will report its next results on 31 January. Up to BUY (Hold) with a TP of SEK 450. Q4e clean EBIT of SEK ~790m.

Paper excellence

Q3 EBIT was 16% above due to strong results from Paper. Late-cyclical Paper and Cartonboard prices still under pressure. Solid valuation support, SOTP SEK 510/sh.

16% beat driven by Paper

Trying to find a higher trough

Pulp and containerboard appear in better shape. Q3e EBIT flat q-o-q. Less destocking into Q4? Smart to buy when macro is low, valuation already down.

Q3 preview

Holmen will report its next results on 25 October. HOLD with a TP of SEK 450 (420). Q3e EBIT of SEK ~1,014m.

Good on Paper, again

Q2 EBIT was 8% above due to strong results from Paper. The direction is down for paper and cartonboard.Solid valuation support, SOTP SEK 505/sh.

Q2 EBIT +8% due to Paper

Leading indicators for OECD industrial production

OECD: The indicator points up a bit from a low level. IP growth has dropped. US: The indicator points up a bit from a low level (housing starts, monetary policy, real FX). EU: The indicator points down (monetary policy, bond yields, real FX). Japan: The indicator is neutral (monetary policy vs hous

Pulp & Paper: Pulp down and wood up

Not a great combo for earnings. Paper needs capacity cuts. Q2e EBIT down q-o-q, lower prices, weak volumes. Valuation down, smart to buy when macro is low.

Q2 preview

We estimate Q2 EBIT of SEK ~1,030mFor full assumptions see our newest sector report from 29 June: Pulp down and wood up..

Valuable hedges strike again

Q1: Soft earnings beat driven by hedging gains. The direction is down for paper and cartonboard. SOTP SEK 505/sh.

21% EBIT beat - high paper prices in Q1

Paper demand too weak for comfort

Pulp & Paper: Paper is the loser again, more capacity cuts needed. Q1e EBIT down q-o-q, lower volumes and prices. Valuation below normal, ATRoCE high.

Paper is the loser again

We downgrade to HOLD (Buy) with a TP of SEK 440 (480). We estimate Q1 EBIT of SEK ~1,345m.

Leading indicators for OECD industrial production

OECD: The indicator points down. US: The indicator points down (house prices, bond yields, monetary policy). EU: The indicator points down (monetary policy, bond yields). Japan: The indicator is neutral (housing starts, monetary policy).