Pulp leads the way

A long list of price increases. Q1e EBIT up q-o-q: lower maintenance costs. Smart to buy when macro is low - and to find the best players LT.

Current set-up more favourable for cyclicals

Huhtamaki will report its next quarterly results on 25 April. We downgrade to HOLD (Buy) with a TP of EUR 41 (44). We arrive at clean EBIT of EUR 96m for Q1'24e.

Packing up the year in style

Q4: EBIT 8% above consensus. Slightly better volumes vs. H1'23. DCF value points to ~EUR 50/share.

Beat of 8% and positive outlook for '24

Two steps forward, one step back

Price hike efforts on early-cyclicals. Q4e EBIT down q-o-q, seasonality and prices. Finding the best players LT - smart to buy when macro is low.

Q4 preview

Huhtamaki will report its next quarterly results on 8 February. We reiterate BUY with a TP of EUR 42 (36). We arrive at clean EBIT of EUR 102m for Q4'23e.

Flexible back at normal profitability

Q3: EBIT 8% above consensus. Slightly better volumes vs. H1'23. DCF value points to ~EUR 50/share.

Clean EBIT 8% above

Trying to find a higher trough

Pulp and containerboard appear in better shape. Q3e EBIT flat q-o-q. Less destocking into Q4? Smart to buy when macro is low, valuation already down.

Q3 preview

Huhtamaki will report its next quarterly results on 20 October. We reiterate BUY with a TP of EUR 35 (37). We arrive at clean EBIT of EUR ~95m for Q3'23e.

Flexible destocking to fade in Q3

Q2: EBIT 3% below consensus. Flexible volumes likely better in Q3. DCF value points to EUR 45-50/share.

Clean EBIT -3% below

Leading indicators for OECD industrial production

OECD: The indicator points up a bit from a low level. IP growth has dropped. US: The indicator points up a bit from a low level (housing starts, monetary policy, real FX). EU: The indicator points down (monetary policy, bond yields, real FX). Japan: The indicator is neutral (monetary policy vs hous

Pulp & Paper: Pulp down and wood up

Not a great combo for earnings. Paper needs capacity cuts. Q2e EBIT down q-o-q, lower prices, weak volumes. Valuation down, smart to buy when macro is low.

Q2 preview

We arrive at clean EBIT of EUR 96m for Q2 '23e. For full assumptions see our newest sector report from 29 June: Pulp down and wood up.

A steady performer as always

Q1 EBIT 2% above. H1'23 likely weaker than H2'23. DCF value points to ~EUR 50/share.

Paper demand too weak for comfort

Pulp & Paper: Paper is the loser again, more capacity cuts needed. Q1e EBIT down q-o-q, lower volumes and prices. Valuation below normal, ATRoCE high.

Q1 preview

We reiterate BUY with a TP of EUR 40 (40). We arrive at clean EBIT of EUR 91m for Q1 '23e. For full assumptions see our sector report from 13 April, Paper demand too weak for comfort.

CMD: EPS potential >EUR 3 in 2025

Leading indicators for OECD industrial production

OECD: The indicator points down. US: The indicator points down (house prices, bond yields, monetary policy). EU: The indicator points down (monetary policy, bond yields). Japan: The indicator is neutral (housing starts, monetary policy).