Buying time with new projects

Q1 EBITDA a bit better, insurance one-off can help in Q2/Q3. Paper is improving – better demand and 10% supply cuts. Walking a tightrope in '24 – unnecessarily tight balance sheet.

Pulp leads the way

A long list of price increases. Q1e EBIT up q-o-q: lower maintenance costs. Smart to buy when macro is low - and to find the best players LT.

Q1 preview

Norske will report its next quarterly results on 19 April. We reiterate BUY with a TP of NOK 38 (41). Q1'24e EBITDA of NOK 5m.

Walking a tightrope in '24

Q4 clean EBITDA 3% vs cons. Q1 likely down. Price direction still down with gas. Unnecessarily tight balance sheet, share down to the paper value. BUY.

EBITDA 3% below

Two steps forward, one step back

Price hike efforts on early-cyclicals. Q4e EBIT down q-o-q, seasonality and prices. Finding the best players LT - smart to buy when macro is low.

Q4 preview

Norske will report its next quarterly results on 8 February. We reiterate BUY with a TP of NOK 45. Q4'23e EBITDA of NOK ~690m.

Poor man's pulp could be next

CMD held 16 Nov – guidance reiterated. A good insurance deal for Saugbrugs. Share down to its Paper value.

Capex overrun, NOK -5/sh

Value support - but winter is coming

Q3: Clean EBITDA 11% below cons. Price direction is still down – Q4e EBITDA weaker than Q3. Share down to its Paper value. BUY, TP NOK 45.

Q3 was weak - negative price and CO2 effects

Another loser in the Norwegian budget II

Trying to find a higher trough

Pulp and containerboard appear in better shape. Q3e EBIT flat q-o-q. Less destocking into Q4? Smart to buy when macro is low, valuation already down.

Q3 preview

Norske will report its next quarterly results on 20 October. We reiterate BUY with a TP of NOK 50 (49). Q3'23e clean EBITDA of NOK ~290m.

In the middle of a good and a bad place

Q2: True clean EBITDA 20% below cons. Price direction is down - Q3e EBITDA will be weaker than Q2. Share beaten back down to its Paper value (NOK 40-50/sh). BUY.

EBITDA -20% below - buybacks, no dividend

Leading indicators for OECD industrial production

OECD: The indicator points up a bit from a low level. IP growth has dropped. US: The indicator points up a bit from a low level (housing starts, monetary policy, real FX). EU: The indicator points down (monetary policy, bond yields, real FX). Japan: The indicator is neutral (monetary policy vs hous

Pulp & Paper: Pulp down and wood up

Not a great combo for earnings. Paper needs capacity cuts. Q2e EBIT down q-o-q, lower prices, weak volumes. Valuation down, smart to buy when macro is low.

Q2 preview

We arrive at a Q2 clean EBITDA of NOK ~400m. For full assumptions see our newest sector report from 29 June: Pulp down and wood up.

Beaten to paper (values)