Pulp leads the way

A long list of price increases. Q1e EBIT up q-o-q: lower maintenance costs. Smart to buy when macro is low - and to find the best players LT.

Go with the flow

Better momentum and market balances. Upside to our mid-cycle value of EUR 18-20/sh. Q1e clean EBIT of ~EUR 102m. BUY (Hold), TP EUR 14.5 (11.5).

A slower recovery

Clean EBIT EUR 51m was in line. However, the '24 EBIT guidance of EUR 390-513m was below. EV/CE 0.85x vs. the financial crisis level at 0.7x. HOLD.

Q4 in-line, outlook better

Two steps forward, one step back

Price hike efforts on early-cyclicals. Q4e EBIT down q-o-q, seasonality and prices. Finding the best players LT - smart to buy when macro is low.

Q4 preview

Stora will report its next quarterly results on 1 February. We reiterate HOLD with a TP of EUR 13 (12). Q4'23e operational EBIT of EUR ~50m.

A step in the right direction

Clean EBIT EUR 21m, in line with consensus. Pulp: from destocking to restocking. EV/CE 0.8x vs. the financial crisis at 0.7x. HOLD.

Q3 figures in-line

Trying to find a higher trough

Pulp and containerboard appear in better shape. Q3e EBIT flat q-o-q. Less destocking into Q4? Smart to buy when macro is low, valuation already down.

Q3 preview

Stora will report its next quarterly results on 24 October. We reiterate HOLD with a TP of EUR 12.5 (10.5). Q3'23e operational EBIT of EUR ~15m.

Weaker for longer

Q2: Clean EBIT -67% below, Q3 could see EBIT break-even. The price direction is down - HOLD.

EBIT -67% below - headwinds from all angles

Leading indicators for OECD industrial production

OECD: The indicator points up a bit from a low level. IP growth has dropped. US: The indicator points up a bit from a low level (housing starts, monetary policy, real FX). EU: The indicator points down (monetary policy, bond yields, real FX). Japan: The indicator is neutral (monetary policy vs hous

Pulp & Paper: Pulp down and wood up

Not a great combo for earnings. Paper needs capacity cuts. Q2e EBIT down q-o-q, lower prices, weak volumes. Valuation down, smart to buy when macro is low.

Q2 preview

We arrive at Q2 operational EBIT of EUR ~115m (reported -100m). For full assumptions see our newest sector report from 29 June: Pulp down and wood up.

Negative news from Billerud and Stora

Paper is out, but EBIT is down

Q1 was very weak: clean EBIT fell +50% y-o-y to EUR 234m, some 26% below Infront consensus at EUR 316m.

A very weak Q1, guidance too

Lowers FY'23 guidance - cons to come down +20%

Paper demand too weak for comfort

Pulp & Paper: Paper is the loser again, more capacity cuts needed. Q1e EBIT down q-o-q, lower volumes and prices. Valuation below normal, ATRoCE high.