No fun in DMC

Q1 likely flat, but Q2 better

Q1 EBITDA of NOK 635m, Q2 likely better. Potentially 30% more DMC supply in '24-'25. Valuation still depressed: EV/CE of 0.7x vs peers at 2.4x.

Back up to parity

Q4 clean EBITDA 10% vs. cons, Q1 likely flat q-o-q. EU silicon metal prices +35%, China parity trade has played out. Valuation still depressed: EV/CE of 0.7x vs peers at 2.4x.

EBITDA +10%, EPS below

Q4: Higher prices, higher earnings

Q4e EBITDA of ~ NOK 600m. EU silicon metal prices +25%, more to go. Valuation still depressed: EV/CE of 0.7x vs peers at 2.4x. BUY.

Q3: Low numbers, valuation too

Q3 clean EBITDA 20% below cons, Q4 likely weaker. Higher Chinese coal prices help, EU premium likely too low. Valuation depressed at EV/CE 0.55x.

Q3 clean EBITDA 20% below

Short-term headwind - coal prices rebounding

Q3e EBITDA of NOK 721m. Higher Chinese coal prices help, EU premium likely too low. Valuation depressed at EV/CE 0.6x.

Direction low, value high

Q2 EBITDA 14% below, very high tax rate. Lower energy prices flatten the cost curve and lower prices. Valuation not demanding at EV/CE 0.7x, MTM EPS NOK 1.7. BUY.

Q2 EBITDA -14%

Q2e: Value is high - direction is low

Q2e EBITDA of ~NOK 1,030m. Lower energy prices flatten the cost curve and lower prices. Valuation not demanding at EV/CE 0.7x, MTM EPS NOK 2.3.

Leading indicators for OECD industrial production

OECD: The indicator points up a bit from a low level. IP growth has dropped. US: The indicator points up a bit from a low level (housing starts, monetary policy, real FX). EU: The indicator points down (monetary policy, bond yields, real FX). Japan: The indicator is neutral (monetary policy vs hous

A flatter cost curve digs into EBITDA

Q1 EBITDA +11% above, Q2 likely down q-o-q. Lower energy prices flatten the cost curve and lower prices. MTM EPS ~NOK 3.9, valuation not demanding at EV/CE 0.8x.

Q1 EBITDA +11%, Q2 likely weaker

Q1e: Super-profits eaten by a flatter cost curve

Q1e EBITDA of NOK 1,270m. Lower energy prices flatten the cost curve and lower prices. MTM EPS ~NOK 4, valuation not demanding.

Leading indicators for OECD industrial production

OECD: The indicator points down. US: The indicator points down (house prices, bond yields, monetary policy). EU: The indicator points down (monetary policy, bond yields). Japan: The indicator is neutral (housing starts, monetary policy).