NY pulls 4GW offshore wind on GE turbine downsizing

Q1'24 sector preview

We expect strong Q1 reports and bullish management teams. Oil price assumptions up, near-term gas price slightly down. Best risk/reward in AKRBP, VAR, IPC, TGS, ODL, DOFG and SUBC.

Q1 likely solid

Steady production, high oil/gas prices. '24e and '25e EPS down ~11% due to lower gas price assumptions. We stick to SELL, TP to NOK 275 (250) on more bullish LT oil price.

Norway: Best ideas Q1'24

Growth momentum picking up. Increased risk on very high US valuation. Best long ideas are: NHY, STB, SUBC, AFG, BONH, NAS, LINK, LSG, TGS, WAWI.

Sunrise set for a price hike

No reason to buy now – still a SELL

The gas story is dead and the divi. yield story is dead, too. EPS and FCF down, '25e dividend yield cut in two (now 5%). TP to NOK 250 (275).

Massive capex increase and cut in dividend

Money burning a hole in their pockets

Investing in low/zero IRR wind and bringing back high-risk Bay-du-Nord? '24e/'25e FCF down 23% and 27% - dividend and buybacks at risk. Downgraded to SELL (Buy), TP to NOK 275 (400).

Q4'23 sector preview

Q4 reports to show improvements and management to be bullish, but investors fear lower oil prices and poorer fundamentals ahead. Best risk/reward in AKRBP, EQNR, TGS, ODL, BORR, DOFG, SUB (all BUY).

We think the CMU (7 Feb) will be positive

Q4 will be strong. Dividend and pay-backs likely to be rolled over to '24. We stick to BUY, TP to NOK 400 (430).

Major issue with floating turbines

Crude Quarterly Q4'23: near-term, oil price is in OPEC's hands

OPEC will have to extend cuts through Q1'24 before it can increase production. Oil market fundamentals look strong medium- to long-term. Both E&P and oil service shares look highly attractive.

Estimate changes from Crude Quarterly, 24 November

In our 24 November Crude Quarterly report, we update our oil and gas price assumptions for our covered E&Ps. See the report for more details on our new oil market estimates and our updated price assumptions.

Q3 confirmed the bull case

6% EBIT beat

Renewable setback – what now?

M&A needed for renewable business to hit company target. In the meantime, capex will be lower and FCF will be stronger. We stick to BUY and a TP of NOK 420.

Crude Quarterly Q3'23: higher for longer

Oil market fundamentals look strong medium-to-long term. Near term, it all hangs on OPEC. Both E&P and oil service shares look highly attractive.

Upgraded to BUY

Seven reasons for our upgrade. In short, FCF will be strong going forward. Upgraded to BUY (Hold), TP to NOK 420 (350).

Adj. EBIT 1% below cons

Crude Quarterly Q2'23: a tad down on oil price assumptions

We have lowered our near-term oil price assumptions for Q3'23-2026e to USD 85 (90) because of slightly lower call-on-OPEC estimates, which is mainly a result of higher assumptions for Russian oil export.