Renewable Weekly – 22 April 2024

This week, we're taking a closer look at Ørsted. Despite challenges in the last few years, we now argue Ørsted is back on the right path. We rate the stock a BUY, and set a 12-month TP of DKK 450/sh.

Back on the right path

Q1e EBITDA up 9% y-o-y on increased offshore capacity. Fundamentals improving, good growth visibility near-term. P/NAV ~1.03x, but ~35% upside if mgmt . delivers on 2026 targets.

NY pulls 4GW offshore wind on GE turbine downsizing

Renewable Weekly – 12 April 2024

This week , we provide some insight into the marginal pricing of electricity markets in Europe, as well as calculation details and a simple calculator where investors can enter their own assumptions.

Q1'24 sector preview

We expect strong Q1 reports and bullish management teams. Oil price assumptions up, near-term gas price slightly down. Best risk/reward in AKRBP, VAR, IPC, TGS, ODL, DOFG and SUBC.

Q1 likely solid

Steady production, high oil/gas prices. '24e and '25e EPS down ~11% due to lower gas price assumptions. We stick to SELL, TP to NOK 275 (250) on more bullish LT oil price.

Renewable Weekly – 4 April 2024

This week, we take a look at cost developments in the offshore wind supply chain.

Renewable Weekly – 27 March 2024

Of our basket of 41 stocks, returns were positive for 33 and negative for 8 over the week. Median performance 4.1%, average 9.9%. Sub-sectors: Wind (3%), Solar (7%), Hydrogen (7%), Cleantech/other (2%).

Renewable Weekly - ​21 March 2024

This week we highlight the offshore wind auction for Sørlige Nordsjø II (SNII). The winning bid was from the consortium Ventyr (Parkwind and Ingka Investments) at a price of NOK 1.15/kWh.

Norway: Best ideas Q1'24

Growth momentum picking up. Increased risk on very high US valuation. Best long ideas are: NHY, STB, SUBC, AFG, BONH, NAS, LINK, LSG, TGS, WAWI.

Renewable Weekly – 11 March 2024

This week, we take a look at the new rules for deposit return systems in EU, following a provisional political agreement between the European Council and European Parliament representatives last week.

Renewable Weekly – 4 March 2024

On aggregate, the R&Ct stocks underperformed MSCI Nordic by ~13% throughout the season (26 Jan to 4 Mar)

Sunrise set for a price hike

Renewable Weekly – 27 February 2024

This week, we would like to highlight one of our key long ideas in the sector: Volue (BUY, TP 31.5), which is a Norwegian technology company.

Renewable Weekly – 19 February 2024

This week, we summarise the key takeaways from the Nordic Renewables & Cleantech companies that have reported Q4 figures so far.

No reason to buy now – still a SELL

The gas story is dead and the divi. yield story is dead, too. EPS and FCF down, '25e dividend yield cut in two (now 5%). TP to NOK 250 (275).

Q4 first take: good enough

Massive capex increase and cut in dividend

Money burning a hole in their pockets

Investing in low/zero IRR wind and bringing back high-risk Bay-du-Nord? '24e/'25e FCF down 23% and 27% - dividend and buybacks at risk. Downgraded to SELL (Buy), TP to NOK 275 (400).

Q4'23 sector preview

Q4 reports to show improvements and management to be bullish, but investors fear lower oil prices and poorer fundamentals ahead. Best risk/reward in AKRBP, EQNR, TGS, ODL, BORR, DOFG, SUB (all BUY).