Q1'24 sector preview

We expect strong Q1 reports and bullish management teams. Oil price assumptions up, near-term gas price slightly down. Best risk/reward in AKRBP, VAR, IPC, TGS, ODL, DOFG and SUBC.

Yet another steady quarter expected

We expect Q1 FCF of NOK 15.9/share. Look out for comments about Johan Sverdrup and Edvard Grieg. A clear BUY, TP to NOK 365 (345) on higher oil price assumptions.

Trading update marginally positive

Don't worry too much about JS

Johan Sverdrup decline in sight, but new fields will secure growth from 2027e. A BUY, but TP to NOK 345 (365) on slightly lower estimates.

Solid Q4 and a 9% increase in dividend

Q4'23 sector preview

Q4 reports to show improvements and management to be bullish, but investors fear lower oil prices and poorer fundamentals ahead. Best risk/reward in AKRBP, EQNR, TGS, ODL, BORR, DOFG, SUB (all BUY).

Steady as she goes

Aker BP's Q4 trading update showed that both oil/gas production and realised prices were as one should expect, reflecting Aker BP's solid asset portfolio and the organisation's strong track record of operations and development.

Norway: Best Ideas Q4'23

Best ideas are; AKRBP, MOWI, STB, 2020, BONH, DOFG, ENTRA, ELMRA and KOMPL

Crude Quarterly Q4'23: near-term, oil price is in OPEC's hands

OPEC will have to extend cuts through Q1'24 before it can increase production. Oil market fundamentals look strong medium- to long-term. Both E&P and oil service shares look highly attractive.

Estimate changes from Crude Quarterly, 24 November

In our 24 November Crude Quarterly report, we update our oil and gas price assumptions for our covered E&Ps. See the report for more details on our new oil market estimates and our updated price assumptions.

M&A ahead?

CEO sees more M&A in both Europe and Norway. We think AkerBP could be both a target and an acquirer. A clear BUY, TP to NOK 380 (375).

3% EBITDA and 6% EBIT beat

Crude Quarterly Q3'23: higher for longer

Oil market fundamentals look strong medium-to-long term. Near term, it all hangs on OPEC. Both E&P and oil service shares look highly attractive.

Estimate changes from Crude Quarterly, 29 September

In our 29 September Crude Quarterly report, we update our oil and gas price assumptions for our covered E&Ps. See the report for more details on our new oil market estimates and our updated price assumptions.

Norway: Best ideas Q3'23

Best ideas are MOWI, ORK, STB, BRG, FRO, ELMERA, TGS, VÅR and ZAP

What's not to like?

Estimates up, great portfolio, strong FCF. ~8% dividend yield is sustainable if oil price stays at current level. A clear BUY, TP NOK 375 (350).

Q2 beat and increased guidance - positive

Q2 production 5% higher than expected

Crude Quarterly Q2'23: a tad down on oil price assumptions

We have lowered our near-term oil price assumptions for Q3'23-2026e to USD 85 (90) because of slightly lower call-on-OPEC estimates, which is mainly a result of higher assumptions for Russian oil export.

Estimate changes from Crude Quarterly, 23 June

We lower our near-term oil price assumptions to USD 82/bbl (88) in '23e and USD 85/bbl (90) in '24-'26e. We lower our gas price assumptions for '23e to USD 15.4/mmBTU (17.1). See the overview of the estimate changes below and our Crude Quarterly report for more details.