Renewable Weekly – 22 April 2024

This week, we're taking a closer look at Ørsted. Despite challenges in the last few years, we now argue Ørsted is back on the right path. We rate the stock a BUY, and set a 12-month TP of DKK 450/sh.

Lending margins coming back

Q1e: NIM getting close to the peak. New interest rate path lifts '24e and '25e adj. EPS. In need of SOON synergies: HOLD.

Red Sea effect weighs more than expected

Q1e down on bigger Red Sea effect. 26% above cons. net profit for '25e. TP of NOK 176 (177) – BUY.

Norway: One downgrade — three top picks

Muted market outlook - some signs of improvement. Selvaag Bolig down to HOLD (Buy). We favour AFG, MULTI, and VEI.

Share has outpaced short-term fundamentals

Q1e: ABGSC is 21% below consensus. UP: Divi cut likely in a prolonged distressed market. Down to HOLD (Buy), TP NOK 40 (45)

Renewable Weekly – 12 April 2024

This week , we provide some insight into the marginal pricing of electricity markets in Europe, as well as calculation details and a simple calculator where investors can enter their own assumptions.

Q1'24 sector preview

We expect strong Q1 reports and bullish management teams. Oil price assumptions up, near-term gas price slightly down. Best risk/reward in AKRBP, VAR, IPC, TGS, ODL, DOFG and SUBC.

Yet another steady quarter expected

We expect Q1 FCF of NOK 15.9/share. Look out for comments about Johan Sverdrup and Edvard Grieg. A clear BUY, TP to NOK 365 (345) on higher oil price assumptions.

Q1 likely to be the trough

Inventories still elevated, i.e. short-term rebound likely to be muted but the trough is near and expectations are low. 3.0x NTM EV/sales vs. historical average of 3.3x.

Still a BUY

Q1'24 EBITDA of NOK 5.8bn expected, '24e EBITDA up 4%. Upstream better, lower volumes and margin pressure downstream. Reiterate BUY — TP NOK 75 (68).

Database error correction

Trading update marginally positive

Back on track

Net rates of USD 84.4/CBM in March, up 4% from February. ~13% downside to consensus EBITDA for Q1'24e, consensus not updated with Jan-Feb data. Share to trade up 2-4%.

Renewable Weekly – 4 April 2024

This week, we take a look at cost developments in the offshore wind supply chain.

Renewable Weekly – 27 March 2024

Of our basket of 41 stocks, returns were positive for 33 and negative for 8 over the week. Median performance 4.1%, average 9.9%. Sub-sectors: Wind (3%), Solar (7%), Hydrogen (7%), Cleantech/other (2%).

Renewable Weekly - ​21 March 2024

This week we highlight the offshore wind auction for Sørlige Nordsjø II (SNII). The winning bid was from the consortium Ventyr (Parkwind and Ingka Investments) at a price of NOK 1.15/kWh.

Norway: Best ideas Q1'24

Growth momentum picking up. Increased risk on very high US valuation. Best long ideas are: NHY, STB, SUBC, AFG, BONH, NAS, LINK, LSG, TGS, WAWI.

Market is tightening – up to BUY

We raise our aluminium price forecast on a rapidly tightening market. UP to BUY (Hold), TP NOK 68 (65).

Renewable Weekly – 11 March 2024

This week, we take a look at the new rules for deposit return systems in EU, following a provisional political agreement between the European Council and European Parliament representatives last week.

Trading update ~17% below Q1e cons

Net rates of USD 80.9/CBM in February, down 5% from January. ~17% downside to consensus EBITDA for Q1'24e, ~15% downside to FY'24e at current levels. Weak February data, "Red Sea effect" now showing.