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ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+6)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Stian Wibstad

Crude Quarterly Q3'24: Lower oil price

Oil inventory draws for the rest of 2024. IEA is wrong – peak demand is not imminent. Both E&P and oil service shares look highly attractive.

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad

Focus on the PBR rigs

Lowering '24 estimates in line with guidance. Focus on the PBR rigs and West Phoenix. BUY, TP NOK 650 (670)

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad

Becoming a pure-play deepwater driller

Carving out jackups from estimates. Focus on West Phoenix and the PBR rigs. 5.1-3.0x EBITDA and 12-26% '25e-'26e FCF to EV yield: BUY.

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+5)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth
  • Stian Wibstad

Crude Quarterly Q2'24: tighter oil market ahead

Oil inventory draws for the rest of 2024. IEA is wrong – peak demand is not imminent. Both E&P and oil service shares look highly attractive.

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad

Navigating a challenging '24 very well

Underlying Q1 numbers fairly in line. Maintains guidance and increases visibility. Minor estimate changes - BUY, TP NOK 670 (unch.)

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • John Olaisen
ABGSC Renewable Energy Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Renewable Energy Research
  • Åsne Holsen
  • Daniel Vårdal Haugland
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • John Olaisen
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+5)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth
  • Stian Wibstad

Q1'24 sector preview

We expect strong Q1 reports and bullish management teams. Oil price assumptions up, near-term gas price slightly down. Best risk/reward in AKRBP, VAR, IPC, TGS, ODL, DOFG and SUBC.

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen

Stronger earnings momentum from Q2e

We estimate USD 156m in Q1 EBITDA. Book-to-bill ~1x in Q1e, solid tender pipeline. Still attractive cash flow yield — BUY, TP NOK 220 (200).

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • John Olaisen

Q1 should be strong in all respects

Steady production and strong underlying cash flow. 2026e EPS up 10%. A clear BUY, TP up to NOK 45 (37).

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • John Olaisen

Hold your horses

Looking dead cheap, but we want to see some steady quarters. Still a HOLD, TP to NOK 30 (27).

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • John Olaisen

Yet another steady quarter expected

We expect Q1 FCF of NOK 15.9/share. Look out for comments about Johan Sverdrup and Edvard Grieg. A clear BUY, TP to NOK 365 (345) on higher oil price assumptions.

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • John Olaisen

Q1 likely solid

Steady production, high oil/gas prices. '24e and '25e EPS down ~11% due to lower gas price assumptions. We stick to SELL, TP to NOK 275 (250) on more bullish LT oil price.

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • John Olaisen

Strong Q1 and positive outlook

Q1 strong for MC and for contract, with more to come. TGS-PGS merger just around the corner. A clear BUY, TP to NOK 12 (11).

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth

Still a cheap option on pipeline reopening

Long-term estimates up on higher oil prices. Maintaining our assumption of local sales in '24. A cheap option on a reopening of the pipeline.BUY.

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