Q1'24 sector preview

We expect strong Q1 reports and bullish management teams. Oil price assumptions up, near-term gas price slightly down. Best risk/reward in AKRBP, VAR, IPC, TGS, ODL, DOFG and SUBC.

Still a cheap option on pipeline reopening

Long-term estimates up on higher oil prices. Maintaining our assumption of local sales in '24. A cheap option on a reopening of the pipeline.BUY.

Building a base case on local sales in '24

Q4 figures as expected. We switch our base case to local sales throughout '24. A cheap option on a reopening of the pipeline.

Q4 in line and no big surprises in guidance

Q4'23 sector preview

Q4 reports to show improvements and management to be bullish, but investors fear lower oil prices and poorer fundamentals ahead. Best risk/reward in AKRBP, EQNR, TGS, ODL, BORR, DOFG, SUB (all BUY).

Increased focus on local sales likely in '24

Pipeline closure continues to lower estimates. Focus on local sales likely in '24. Continued uncertainty but good valuation support. BUY.

Crude Quarterly Q4'23: near-term, oil price is in OPEC's hands

OPEC will have to extend cuts through Q1'24 before it can increase production. Oil market fundamentals look strong medium- to long-term. Both E&P and oil service shares look highly attractive.

Estimate changes from Crude Quarterly, 24 November

In our 24 November Crude Quarterly report, we update our oil and gas price assumptions for our covered E&Ps. See the report for more details on our new oil market estimates and our updated price assumptions.

Estimates up on rise in local sales

Q3 figures soft compared to consensus. Increased local sales mean Kurdistan CF is positive. We reiterate BUY, TP NOK 14/share.

Continues to ramp up local sales

Still pipeline uncertainty but better FCF in Q3e

Pipeline closure continues to lower estimates. Big improvement in FCF compared to Q2. Continued uncertainty but good valuation support. BUY.

Crude Quarterly Q3'23: higher for longer

Oil market fundamentals look strong medium-to-long term. Near term, it all hangs on OPEC. Both E&P and oil service shares look highly attractive.

Estimate changes from Crude Quarterly, 29 September

In our 29 September Crude Quarterly report, we update our oil and gas price assumptions for our covered E&Ps. See the report for more details on our new oil market estimates and our updated price assumptions.

Local sales support FCF until pipeline reopens

Q2 numbers in line with consensus. Ramping up local sales from Tawke. Great production potential in NCS portfolio.

Restarts the Tawke field

Pipeline closure continues to pressure ests.

DNO with largest NCS discovery in 10 years

Crude Quarterly Q2'23: a tad down on oil price assumptions

We have lowered our near-term oil price assumptions for Q3'23-2026e to USD 85 (90) because of slightly lower call-on-OPEC estimates, which is mainly a result of higher assumptions for Russian oil export.

Estimate changes from Crude Quarterly, 23 June

We lower our near-term oil price assumptions to USD 82/bbl (88) in '23e and USD 85/bbl (90) in '24-'26e. We lower our gas price assumptions for '23e to USD 15.4/mmBTU (17.1). See the overview of the estimate changes below and our Crude Quarterly report for more details.

North Sea exploration at full throttle

Restart of exports could be imminent. Full throttle in the North Sea, '23 exploration adding more value. Attractive valuation support.