Q1'24 sector preview

We expect strong Q1 reports and bullish management teams. Oil price assumptions up, near-term gas price slightly down. Best risk/reward in AKRBP, VAR, IPC, TGS, ODL, DOFG and SUBC.

Strong Q1 and positive outlook

Q1 strong for MC and for contract, with more to come. TGS-PGS merger just around the corner. A clear BUY, TP to NOK 12 (11).

Only tweaks on estimates post-Q4

Q4 gave no reasons for significant estimate changes. Merger with TGS will be good for PGS. A clear BUY, TP NOK 11 (unch.)

No surprises in Q4 report

Q4'23 sector preview

Q4 reports to show improvements and management to be bullish, but investors fear lower oil prices and poorer fundamentals ahead. Best risk/reward in AKRBP, EQNR, TGS, ODL, BORR, DOFG, SUB (all BUY).

We expect improvement in all segments in 2024

MC sales/investment ratio of 2.0x also in 2024. ~10% increase in both contract rates and vessel utilization in 2024. A clear BUY, TP unchanged at NOK 11.

Minor estimate changes post revenue update

10% revenue beat, but note the lumpiness. We still expect further improvements in 2024. A clear BUY, but TP to NOK 11 (13) on lower TGS estimates.

Crude Quarterly Q4'23: near-term, oil price is in OPEC's hands

OPEC will have to extend cuts through Q1'24 before it can increase production. Oil market fundamentals look strong medium- to long-term. Both E&P and oil service shares look highly attractive.

Saved by the merger with TGS

PGS' weak Q3 late-sales and guidance of only 50-60% vessel utilizsation in Q4 are both highly disappointing. Were it not for the merger with TGS, the PGS share price would likely be significantly lower than its current level.

Lower estimates post Q3 revenue update

Segment '23e and '24e EBITDA down 9% and 2%. We do not think the TGS-PGS merger is at risk. Still a BUY, TP unchanged at NOK 12.

Q3 revenues 14-22% below - weak late-sale

Crude Quarterly Q3'23: higher for longer

Oil market fundamentals look strong medium-to-long term. Near term, it all hangs on OPEC. Both E&P and oil service shares look highly attractive.

Refinancing de-risks the equity story

New USD 75m loan removes March risk. Only minor estimate changes post-Q2. BUY, TP to NOK 12 (10).

Q2 beat and debt refinanced - very positive

Slower than expected improvements, but still improving

Estimates lowered after revenue update, but still very attractive valuation and strong FCF. BUY, TP to NOK 10 (11).

A miss, but a relief after TGS' figures yesterday

Crude Quarterly Q2'23: a tad down on oil price assumptions

We have lowered our near-term oil price assumptions for Q3'23-2026e to USD 85 (90) because of slightly lower call-on-OPEC estimates, which is mainly a result of higher assumptions for Russian oil export.

A new buying opportunity

Weak Q1 late-sales, high interest rate on new bond, and higher costs. We think this has created a new buying opportunity. BUY, TP to NOK 11 (12).

12% EBITDA miss due to high opex

Q1 points to soft late-sales year, but collapse unlikely

Outlook is still bright - late-sales should rebound. BUY on dip, 6m TP to NOK 12 (13).