Lending margins coming back

Q1e: NIM getting close to the peak. New interest rate path lifts '24e and '25e adj. EPS. In need of SOON synergies: HOLD.

Awaiting the merger: HOLD

Adj. PTP +12% amid write-backs and better NII. EPS up +3% for '24e and +6% for '25e on higher NIM. Fair price on SR-Bank ahead of the merger: HOLD.

Norw. Savingsbanks - could be just soft today

Norwegian banks - Q4 sector preview

Sector trading at '24e-'25e P/Es of 8.5x and 9.1x, with abating NIM, and at '23e P/BV 1.2x with normalised ROE of ~14%, still attractive. Adj. EPS up for '24e, down for '25e; we prefer SVEG & MING.

Synergies needed as top line peaks in '24e

Q4e: adj. PTP of NOK 1.3bn up ~30% y-o-y, but down 2% q-o-q. New interest rate path lifts '24e adj. EPS, but lowers '25e. Have to look for new synergies to get excited: HOLD.

Norway: further consolidation in the P&C industry

Fremtind Forsikring (14.8%) intends to merge with Eika Forsikring (4%). New market share size of 18.8% (#3) should be acceptable for the competition authority. Likely to make the industry even more rational - positive.

Norwegian savings banks: Christmas gifts from the NFSA

Sp1 banks are allowed to establish "new" Sp1 Markets. Gains will be moved from Q1'24e to Q4'23e and add to dividend capacity. Prefer MING and SVEG in Norway on more attractive valuation.

Welcome Sparebank1 Sør-Norge next year

Q3 adj PTP +5% vs FactSet consensus and +24% vs ABGSCe. EPS up 7% for '23e (Q3 beat), -4% for '25e (share count). Attractive new combination at a fair price: HOLD.

A good combination for both

Q3e: Lending growth is keeping up in its region

Q3e: record high NII despite 3M NIBOR headwind. Trim volumes, fees and costs, impact both 23e and 25e negative. TP to NOK 128 (134) – stock not expensive, but we favour MING.

Norway: Best ideas Q3'23

Best ideas are MOWI, ORK, STB, BRG, FRO, ELMERA, TGS, VÅR and ZAP

Write backs, but softer other income and costs

Adj. PTP beat of 7% vs. ABGSCe, 2% vs cons. driven by write-backs, muted by weaker costs & other income. Cons. EPS chg. likely down 1-4%, stock likely soft -1-4%

Insurance: Q2 natural perils loss in Norway

Norwegian banks: Further NII uplift

Sector trading at P/E'23e-'24e of 8.3x and 8.1x at a P/BV of 1.1x with ROE of ~14%. Adj. EPS up (higher interest rates) – expect further cons. uplift.

Expect stronger growth vs. peers

Trading at a P/E in '23e-'24e of 8.4x and 8.2x, and at a P/BV of 1.07x, with ROE of ~14%. Adj. EPS up (higher interest rates) — expect further cons. uplift. BUY.

Estimates intact – BUY the weakness

Better adj. PTP driven by lower loan losses

Norwegian banks: another strong quarter

Q1e: expect solid reports, but with a neutral risk/reward. Adj. EPS up (higher interest rates) — expect further cons. uplift. Trading in line with historical average — but record earnings

Expect all-time-high earnings

Q1e: strong NII growth driving q-o-q growth. Positive EPS revisions. TP to NOK 134 (131) - we reiterate BUY.

The NFSA proposes naming SR-Bank "SIFI"

Recommends additional CET1 requirement of 1pp, but likely muted by the potential 0.7pp P2R relief. New CET1 req. likely ~17.1%. Neutral for SR-Bank.