reports
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #41
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the endless reshuffling of European purchasing alliances among food retai
- Cedric Rossi
H&M: blurred margin trajectory due to brand's investments to fuel sale...
Although the reduced 10% margin target came as no surprise since the CSSe has always been more conservative (8.2%e prior to Q3 publication), it reflects H&M's initiatives around brand activation and improved competitiveness to revitalise top-line growth. Negative external factors and markdown i
- Cedric Rossi
H&M: encouraging start to Q4 after an uninspiring Q3
The Q3 results unveiled this morning missed CSSe at both the sales and EBIT levels (-3% and -26% respectively), confirming once again that H&M is clearly more sensitive than ITX to volatile market conditions. On a positive note, sales trends have shown a gradual recovery with +3% FX-n over July
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #39
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we discuss the Fed's upcoming meeting and rate cut. Happy reading!
- Cedric Rossi
Inditex: strong momentum keeps rolling
Among the four main pillars of its "To the Next Level" strategy, initiatives around Customer Experience (e.g.: store optimisation, roll-out of Zara Streaming Experience, etc.) are delivering the most visible results at both the sales and profit levels. They also support our scenario for profitable
- Cedric Rossi
Inditex: sound Q2 results and current trading
Despite adverse weather conditions during the summer, Inditex has unveiled strong Q2 results this morning with: double-digit FX-n sales growth for the 14th consecutive quarter (+10%) and a solid 100bp-improvement in EBIT margin to 19.2% (CSSe: 18.9%). This momentum has not waned with sales between
- Cedric Rossi
Fashion: sweet or sour Back-to-School?
While publications of US retailers this week (e.g.: Gap, Abercrombie & Fitch, lululemon, etc) should give the market a clearer view of the US consumer mood, the European consumer mindset is set to be reflected in H&M and Inditex's publications next month. As expected, the summer has been no
- Cedric Rossi
Fashion: will plans to impose duties on cheap goods disrupt Shein and ...
The very competitive prices offered by Shein and Temu stem from their ability to take advantage of tax loopholes allowing parcels to be shipped without having to pay duties and taxes as long as they are under a certain value. As the EU Commission is moving to scrap the EU's EUR150 import tax loopho
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #35
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the political uncertainty that is clearly set to drive stock markets unti
- Cedric Rossi
H&M: Doubts on profitability, or on Europe's political stability?
In our view, yesterday's 13% drop in the share price is mainly due to weakening investor sentiment amid political turmoil (Europe is 63% of H&M's revenue), rather than to disappointing June sales (-6% FX-n), as CSSe (9.1%) was already well below the company's EBIT margin target of 10%. Arguably
- Cedric Rossi
Fashion: consumers backpedaling on sustainability due to inflation
In our recent Fashion report "Is sustainability the new luxury?", we were highlighting the green consumer paradox vis-a-vis sustainable brands. A McKinsey survey just discovered that consumers are indeed de-emphasising the importance of ESG in their purchases in an inflation-impacted world. This wo
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #32
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we take a fresher look at the (still ongoing) Red Sea freight crisis. Happy reading!
- Cedric Rossi
Inditex: defying gravity
In our sector update last week, we highlighted that it was becoming hard for ITX to beat the CSS which has been revising estimates upwards over the past two years. And yet, ITX unveiled a good set of Q1 numbers yesterday, marked by a 13th consecutive quarter of double-digit FX-n sales growth, and,
- Cedric Rossi
Fashion: a wet spring but blooming publications
Despite a wetter-than-average spring season over a large part of Europe, key European fashion markets have shown some resilience over recent months, partly thanks to a gradual improvement in European consumer sentiment. Inditex is due to report Q1 results (February-April) on 5th June, followed by H
- Cedric Rossi
Fashion: Is sustainability the new luxury?
The bankruptcy of circular fashion startup Renewcell combined with the stellar success of Chinese platforms Shein and Temu have highlighted the green consumer paradox: consumers say they want sustainable clothing, but the majority are not tending to buy them, especially at a time when cost-of-livin
- Cedric Rossi
H&M: Q1 margin trajectory more appealing than sales trends
Q1 2024 results unveiled yesterday by H&M showed impressive profit momentum, while March sales (+2% FX-n) improved sequentially vs. Q1 (-2% FX-n), albeit well below the pace of growth at Inditex. Although we increase our FY24 estimates by 5% following these stronger-than-expected Q1 profits, we
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #21
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the expected growth recovery among e-commerce players and the necessary b
- Cedric Rossi
Inditex: no time for rest to reach "The next level"
Beyond the 28% increase in FY23 dividend and robust current trading that fuelled yesterday's positive market reaction, we feel that investors also welcomed Inditex's strategic initiatives to further enhance customer experience and supply chain capabilities by 2026. These investments are set to mate
- Cedric Rossi
Inditex: solid FY23 results but increasingly hard to satisfy a demandi...
For the third year in a row, Inditex achieved double-digit FX-n sales growth with +14.1% in FY23 and EBIT margin up 200bp to 18.9%, the highest profitability level since 2012. Although some investors could be slightly disappointed by the modest margin miss in Q4 (-1% vs. CSSe), especially after the
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #15
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage from Luxury & Consumer goods, to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we take a look at the latest economic data on US consumers as we think they could pr
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