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ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

We expect further improvements ahead

Sales miss while gross margin and costs impressed in Q2. Growth set to recover, adj. EBITA intact and EPS +2-3%. Case remains, we stick to BUY, TP SEK 17 (15).

ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath
ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath
ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

One of our top picks for 2024

We expect -10% organic growth in Q2e, before the tide turns. Refreshment cycle, Windows 11 and AI to drive 2024 PC recovery. Minor estimate revisions, we stick to BUY, TP SEK 15.

ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath
ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Time to BUY into a recovering market

Balance sheet fixed, growth to recover and margins on the rise. 12% adj. EBITA CAGR for '22/'23-'25/'26e. Valuation now attractive, up to BUY (Hold), TP of SEK 15 (10).

ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath
ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Market yet to recover

SEK 1.75bn rights issue done and in the numbers, 4x more shares. Market remains muted with weak IT capex and PC/smartphone sales. Adj. EBITA -1%, EPS -73%; HOLD, TP SEK 10 (18).

ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Not yet attractive, market remains slow

Disappointing growth and slow recovery, adj. EBITA -8-12%. Rights issue coming up, terms yet unknown, not included in estimates. We remain cautious on growth recovery: HOLD. TP SEK 18 (24).

ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath
ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Estimates slide and risks remain high

We reduce adj. EBITA 4-8% on lower demand & tougher competition. 4.5x leverage in Q3 could go up in Q4e, increasing equity issue risk. To risky for us, we stick to HOLD, TP SEK 24 (32).

ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath
ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Estimate cuts but lower financial risk

Weak market but lower inventory improves balance sheet. We reiterate HOLD amid weak earnings growth, TP down to SEK 32 (34).

ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath
ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Balance sheet worries remain

We estimate -3% org growth and -21% adj. EBITA y-o-y in Q3e. Adj. EBITA cut -5-8%, leverage to take a step up from 4.4x in Q2. Low valuation but rights issue risk remains: HOLD.

ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Starting to look more attractive

Leverage better than feared and inventory guidance compelling. But earnings momentum still under pressure, adj. EBITA -1-3%. Less risk of an equity issue, we raise TP but stick to HOLD.

ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath
ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Another round of estimate cuts

Demand indicators continue to be under pressure. Adj. EBITA 2022/23e -10% on lower SMB assumptions. Balance sheet shape key for the share, we stick to HOLD.

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