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ABGSC IT Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard

Q1 likely to be soft, but LT case intact

Easter effects likely means a weak Q1, but a reversal in Q2. Margin uplift to drive ~200% EBITA growth until '26e. BUY: 10% 2024e FCF to EV yield.

ABGSC IT Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
ABGSC IT Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
ABGSC IT Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
ABGSC IT Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
ABGSC IT Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard

Storm in a teacup

WC issues seem somewhat misunderstood and exaggerated. Accumulated FCF/EBIT of 96% ('17-'22) excl. Philippines. BUY: 11-18% '24e-'25e FCF yield.

ABGSC IT Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard

Show me the money

WC remains a drag, but receivables going in the right direction. Too cheap at 11.5-20% '24e-'25e FCF yield. BUY: 14% GP and 35% EBITA '23e-'25e CAGR.

ABGSC IT Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
ABGSC IT Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard

Compounder at deep discount

Cautious view on Q3: below on adj. EBITDA, cash flow likely soft, but the stock is too cheap at 13-23% '23e-'25e FCF yield. BUY: 15% GP and 38% EBITA '23e-'25e CAGR.

ABGSC IT Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
ABGSC IT Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard

Recent noise creates buying opportunity

Cons margin expectations seem too ambitious, but the stock is still too cheap at an 11-18% '23e-'25e FCF yield. BUY: 14% GP and 38% EBITA '23e-'25e CAGR.

ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Eirik Thune Øritsland
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Eirik Thune Øritsland
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Eirik Thune Øritsland
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard

NWC starting to improve

FY'23e adj. EBITDA-capex up 3%. Solid outlook and attractive pricing. BUY: Target price NOK 153.

ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Eirik Thune Øritsland
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Eirik Thune Øritsland
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard

Solid outlook and attractive pricing

Q1e: 20% growth and adj. EBITDA of NOK 163m. Solid growth outlook and attractive pricing. BUY: target price NOK 149 (150).

ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Eirik Thune Øritsland
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard

Attractive valuation and upside to estimates

FY'22: Growth well above guidance, margin below. '23 guidance indicates upside to our estimates. BUY reiterated with target price of NOK 150 (166).

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