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ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Strong guidance lifts Q1 estimates

Strong guidance – lifting Q1 estimates. ABGSC '25e EBITDA of USD 1,121m (+39% vs. cons.). TP of DKK 314 (276) – BUY.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Miss on Q4, strong guidance

Adj. EBITDA of USD 206m (-9% vs. ABGSCe, -7% vs cons.). Solid mid FY'24 guidance, ~13% upside to cons Q1 EBITDA. Q4 below expectations, strong FY'24 guidance.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Nine women can't produce a child in one month

All but VLCC rates are already at or close to ATH. Fleet growth will remain miniscule in '24-'25e. Average total return of ~70% in 2023, but more to come.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

On its way into yield heaven

Low fleet growth is guaranteed throughout 2025. ABGSC '25e EBITDA of USD 1,113m (+31% vs. cons.). TP of NOK 276 (275) – BUY.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

The more tankers, the better

More vessels, 8 LR2 and 4 MR vessels. ABGSC '24e EBITDA of USD 1,221m (+67% vs. consensus). TP of NOK 275 (258) – BUY.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Q3 as expected, strong Q4 guidance

Adj. EBITDA of USD 163m (1% vs. ABGSCe, 2% vs cons.). 8 LR2 for a total consideration of USD 399m. Strong guidance for Q4, FY'23 guidance narrowed. Q3 in-line with expectations, transaction according to the market.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Only minor changes

Minor adjustments - Q3e EBITDA of USD 162m. ABGSC '24e EBITDA of USD 1,168m (+59% vs. cons.). TP of DKK 258 (270) – BUY, P/NAV 1.12x.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Well-prepared for the coming high season

Volatile tanker rates and increasing asset prices. ABGSC '24e EBITDA of USD 1,186m (+44% vs. consensus). TP of DKK 270 (274) – BUY, P/NAV 0.94x.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Adj EBITDA 4% below cons, positive outlook

EBITDA of USD 200m (-6% vs. ABGSCe, -4% vs cons.). Strong guidance for Q3. Q2 miss mitigated by strong Q3 coverage.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Coming high-season should reverse share price decline

Volatile tanker rates and increasing asset prices. ABGSC '24e EBITDA of USD 1,186m (+44% vs. cons.). TP of DKK 274 (279) – BUY, P/NAV 0.79x.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Long-term outlook remains intact

Q2 estimates up, long-term unchanged. ABGSC '24e EBITDA of USD 1,194m (+36% vs. consensus). TP of DKK 279 (259) – BUY , P/NAV 0.94x.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Disappointing Q1 numbers, FY'23 guidance reiterated

EBITDA of USD 199m (-18% vs. ABGSCe, -18% vs cons.). Good guidance for Q2. Share price down by 2-4% in a flat market.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

In line with consensus for Q1

Minor adjustments to estimates. ABGSC '24e EBITDA of USD 1,197m (+39% vs. consensus). TP of DKK 259 (273): BUY

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Strong report and guidance in a strong market

Q1'23e EBITDA up on strong guidance. ABGSC '24e EBITDA of USD 1,196m (+78% vs cons.) TP of DKK 273 (264) - BUY.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
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