Premium valuation still too high

Q1: Lower cost, higher run-off gains and better financials. Adj. EPS up by 3.7%, 2.8% and 2.6%, for '24-26e. Valuation premium and low yield make it unattractive.

Better costs and financials

Nordic non-life: Q1e - frequency & price hikes

Cold start, storms and snow set the stage for higher frequency claims. Underl. claims improved from last year's repricing and changed terms. Negative risk/reward in both Tryg and Top from UW & financials.

Valuation premium has narrowed

Q1e: another poor weather quarter combined with Oona headwind. Adj. EPS trimmed by 5% for '24e (claims) but unchanged for '25e. Valuation premium down a bit more (now 10-12%); stay away.

Too low yield vs peers, stay away

Q4 had even tougher weather, but underlying UW just better. Adj. EPS in '24e down 4% and '25e down 6% amid costs. Valuation premium and low yield makes it unattractive.

Weather hit hard, '24 guidance looks prudent

Non-life: Q4e impacted by rates and weather

Larger changes to interest rate and colder weather are main topics. Underl. CR improved, but interest rates affect both CR & financials. Prefer Tryg & Sampo (both BUY) over GJF (HOLD) & Top (SELL).

Adding one month of Oona Health

Q4e: weather and dis-synergies to hit CR, underl. CR could improve. Adj. EPS trimmed for 23e-24e, up 4% for '25e (premiums). Overly high valuation premium to peers given its total yield: SELL.

Q3: Not just a lack of fires in agri

Q3: mixed frequency; fire (pos) motor (neg), but there seems to be other effects (repricing above inflation) that lifts estimates 1%. Valuation premium still too solid, even dividend-adjusted – SELL.

A relief vs expectations

Non-life: bad weather takes its toll on Q3e

Rain, storms and flooding leave their mark on the quarter. CR for '23e down (weather), stable '24e-'25e levels (pricing discipline). Prefer Tryg, Solid & Sampo (all BUY) over GJF (HOLD), Top (SELL).

Dividend yield not attractive enough – SELL

Q3e: weather events to hit reported, frequency to hit underlying CR. Adj. EPS down 10% in '23e, -2% in both '24e-'25e (lower premiums). Fairly valued and overly low yield leaves it unattractive: SELL

Underlying frequency weighs on estimates

Weaker UW and financials - pre-announced

PW: Stock could continue its underperformance

Miss consensus net profit by 28% from financials & frequency. New guidance include higher motor frequency in 2H. Cons. est. rev -6-12% for 23e; Stock could continue -5%

Insurance: a quarter marked by large losses

Two large losses announced, several not, hurting Q2e CR. Combined ratio (CR) up in '24e-'25e on pricing discipline. Prefer Tryg (BUY) over Sampo & GJF (both HOLD), Top (SELL).

Insurance: a quarter marked by large losses

Q2e: Tougher underwriting comps y-o-y

Q2e: cost ratio up (dis-synergies) and claims (freq. & re-ins.). Adj. EPS in '24e-'25e up on better CR. Increasingly fairly valued, but still our relative funding (SELL).

Insurance trip: 15 insurers in three days

We continue to favour Tryg and STB, followed by Sampo. Inflation & repricing still key - separates winners from losers. P&C insurance remains robust during weaker macro.

Financials & run-offs driving net profit beat

Net profit DKK 373m, +14% vs. cons. driven by financials. CR guidance at 82.5-85.5% (ex.run-off); cons at 83.6%. Cons.est.rev. likely +1-3% on ‘23e, less for 24e-25e.