MWC 2024: what we learned

We attended the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona. Significant potential for improved 5G monetisation, leading to higher potential 5G capex.

Strong Q4 report from True

5% beat on EBITDA-capex

NOK 8bn write-down in True

Lack of major triggers short-term

Q4e: cash flow likely to be solid, but EPS hurt by write-down. Lack of major triggers short-term. HOLD: premium to peers on EV/FCF vs. historical discount.

Divesting Pakistan for NOK 5.3bn

Divests Satellite at 6.2x EV/EBIT

True Q3: Integration on track, dividends from '25

Awaiting updates on strategic transactions

We lift '23e-'25e EBITDA-capex by ~2%. Potential for more value-creative deals, but tower sale more uncertain. HOLD: premium to peers vs. historic discount.

FCF 40% above consensus

At a premium for the first time in 10y

Dividend coverage remains an uncertainty. +40% outperformance vs. other Nordic telcos YTD. HOLD (Buy): 13% premium to peers on EV/FCF vs. 10y avg. -14%.

Earnings momentum to accelerate

Nordic EBITDA growth to accelerate in H2e. FCF down for FY'23e but no change for '24-'25e. Positive earnings revisions and Asia catalysts: BUY.

Q2'23: strong growth in Nordics

Q2'23e: Nordics stable

Q2'23 on 20 July: Nordic growth remains strong. Free cash flow diluted by one-offs again in Q2. EBITDA and cash flow to improve in H2; BUY.

Regulatory and consolidation support

Legacy free incumbent

Q1: Nordics strong while one-offs dilute cash flow. FY'23e EPS and FCF reduced, with '24e-'25e unchanged. Upside to estimates and valuation; BUY.

Q1'23: Nordics strong but weak cash flow

Q1'23: new strategy taking hold

Q1 results 4 May according to new reporting structure. DTAC deconsol. reduces EBITDA by 20%, EPS -10%. More to come from Telenor; we reiterate BUY.

Nordic consolidation back in focus

Telenor reportedly in merger talks with 3 Scandinavia. Valuation and regulatory approval remain major obstacles. Positive for Telenor, Telia, Tele2 but far from certain.

The start of a sustained recovery

Sector recovering from sharp H2'22 underperformance. '23e: positive growth outlook with cash flow to recover. Among Nordics we prefer Telenor and Telia Company.