Re-rated, but a bit more to give

Solid Q1 across the board, acceleration in the right segments. Minor revisons on EBITDAaL, but we upgrade '26e FCF by 5%, which represents a ~9% yield and keep s us as BUYers.

Good mix as Q1 comes in 1% above cons

Heads-up for report 18 April

The iliad revolution

Q1'24e: Muted adj. EBITDAaL growth well communicated. Eliminated overhang means limited hurdles for a re-rating where we argue 9% FCF yield in '26e is too cheap - BUY.

MWC 2024: what we learned

We attended the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona. Significant potential for improved 5G monetisation, leading to higher potential 5G capex.

'25e only a bump in the cash flow road

Strong Q4 on quality items, and raised DPS. Lower '25e cash flow, but expect a sharp improvement in '26e. Tele2 remains our preferred telco - keep BUY at 8% div. yield.

Great Q4 overshadowed by '25 capex outlook

Low-risk high yielder

Q4'23e: Swe EBITDAaL returning to growth (+1% org.). '23e DPS of SEK 6.80 on reassuring leverage and FCF outlook. Keep BUY on low-risk ~8% yield and improving cash flow in '24e-'25e.

Dividend reassurance

Q3: und. EBITDAaL growth improvement and strong cash flow. We tweak und. EBITDAaL by +1%, '24e-'25e EFCF up 3-2%. Keep BUY on 8% div. yield - SEK 6.80 in DPS should hold.

Strong cash flow allows outperformance

>8% div. yield too attractive to ignore

Q3'23: Sweden EBITDAaL growth to improve q-o-q. EFCF to grow 11-7% in '24e-'25e after capex peaking in '23e. Change of analyst – we upgrade to BUY, TP SEK 100 (80).

Capex finally catching up

Q2 EBITDA in line but Sweden declined by 5% y-o-y. FY'23 outlook with sharp upgrade to '23-'24 capex guidance. Dividend cover under pressure. TP to SEK 80 (100): SELL (Hold).

Q2'23: weaker EBITDA mix and capex raise

Q2'23e: higher costs still weighing

Q2'23 results 18 July: Sweden improving slightly. Energy and content costs still weighing on EBITDA. Q2 unlikely to change market view; we remain at HOLD.

Still much to do

Q1: higher cost weighing on Sweden EBITDA. We make minor changes to our '23-'25e estimates. Shares benefitting from Telia's troubles: HOLD.

Q1'23: Sweden EBITDA decline

Q1'23e: cost pressure

Q1'23 on 21 April: FY'23 outlook to be reiterated. Sweden: improved revenue trends but pressure on EBITDA. Shares have performed strongly; we remain at HOLD.

Nordic consolidation back in focus

Telenor reportedly in merger talks with 3 Scandinavia. Valuation and regulatory approval remain major obstacles. Positive for Telenor, Telia, Tele2 but far from certain.

The start of a sustained recovery

Sector recovering from sharp H2'22 underperformance. '23e: positive growth outlook with cash flow to recover. Among Nordics we prefer Telenor and Telia Company.