Baltics to drive healthy 5% EBITDA growth

Q1e LFL service revenue and adj. EBITDA up 2% and 5%. Danish sale closed, leverage down to 2.1x in Q2'24e. Relative yield not attractive enough — keep HOLD.

MWC 2024: what we learned

We attended the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona. Significant potential for improved 5G monetisation, leading to higher potential 5G capex.

Lack of dividend coverage until '26e

Solid EBITDA growth but higher capex weighing on CF. DPS floor to remain in question – we estimate flat '23-'25e DPS. Downside risk on valuation but TV & Media sale could trigger : HOLD.

Solid Q4 overshadowed by '24 guidance

SEK 4.1bn impairments, limited drama

Kirkby to wave goodbye in style

Q4'23 on 26 Jan: serv. rev. and adj. EBITDA up 3-8% l-f-l. We expect SEK 2.00 in '23 DPS - 7.4% div. yield. Turnaround needs to be proven — keep HOLD.

A bolt from the blue

Accelerating Telco growth drove a solid beat, making us raise '24e-'25e OFCF by 6% on 3% higher adj. EBITDA. We lift our TP to SEK 28 (25) but keep HOLD.

Big beat, 8% Telco adj. EBITDA growth l-f-l

Cautiously optimistic

Q3'23 results on 19 Oct: cash flow to improve from H1. Denmark de-consolidated, ~SEK 250m OFCF impact on PF. Change of analyst – downgrade to HOLD, TP of SEK 25 (30).

Downgrade cycle turning

Q2 in line with Telco growth and TV Media loss. Cash flow downgrades coming to an end, TP SEK 30 (36). Negative earnings revisions turning: BUY.

Q2'23: Telco growth but TV & Media dilution

Reducing financial risk

Q1 sees improving telco trends but higher content cost. Vendor financing balance now fully renewed and financial risk being reduced : we keep BUY.

Q1'23 results mixed

Q1'23e: spiralling content costs

Q1'23 results due 26 April: Sweden lagging again. Higher TV content cost a drag on FY estimates. Vendor financing to burden Q1 cash flow.

Nordic consolidation back in focus

Telenor reportedly in merger talks with 3 Scandinavia. Valuation and regulatory approval remain major obstacles. Positive for Telenor, Telia, Tele2 but far from certain.

The start of a sustained recovery

Sector recovering from sharp H2'22 underperformance. '23e: positive growth outlook with cash flow to recover. Among Nordics we prefer Telenor and Telia Company.