Heads-up for Q1 report, 24 April

Profit sharing and more buybacks

Q1e: results before amortisation of NOK 1.17bn and solvency ~191%. Estimates up slightly on AUM and more profit sharing (Sweden). Earnings growth and SBB key focus; BUY, NOK TP 125 (120).

Norway: Best ideas Q1'24

Growth momentum picking up. Increased risk on very high US valuation. Best long ideas are: NHY, STB, SUBC, AFG, BONH, NAS, LINK, LSG, TGS, WAWI.

Capital repatriation to continue for years

Adj. PTP +1% ahead of ABGSCe, reported -22%. Adj. EPS'24e-25 up 1-2% on higher financials & AUM growth. Three-quarters of market cap to be distributed to shareholders.

Blury report, decent capital distribution

Heads-up for Q4 report 7 February

We expect buybacks to restart

Q4e: result before amortisation of NOK 1,170m and solvency ~199%. Estimates up and solvency down from changing rate curve. Expectations of restart of share buyback program a key focus - BUY.

Norway: Best Ideas Q4'23

Best ideas are; AKRBP, MOWI, STB, 2020, BONH, DOFG, ENTRA, ELMRA and KOMPL

An opportunity to check its calculator

NOK 5bn group before amortisation, profit guidance by '25e up 42% vs. '23e. We trim 4-6% on softer profit sharing guiding and lower SBB. A second opportunity to BUY the winner of high interest rates.

Realistic targets, but enough to satisfy?

ROE >14% and group profit NOK 5bn by '25e in line with consensus. Capital distribution, increasing DPS and NOK 1.5bn share BB (ann). Cons. est. rev minor; stock down 0 to 2% as decent ahead of the day.

CMD could reveal more accurate paid-ups data

Expect an operating target and update on capital... but more importantly, details to on how to calculate profit sharing. We are well ahead of consensus on earnings and distribution: BUY.

Profit sharing is creeping closer

Profit sharing and strong solvency will make capital distribution high. Adj. EPS'23e up 11%, '24e'25e just up 1% on improved costs. A good time to buy the winner of high interest rates.

Stock up 2-6% today from beat and relief

Profit sharing gives higher capital return

Q3e: result before amortisation NOK 800m and solvency ~195%. Estimates down from chg. rate curve, while solvency up with gain. Use any dip that could happen at a weak Q3 result to BUY.

Expect 4th share BB to start during next week

2nd leg of NOK 1bn BB is likely to start ahead of 30 Sept. Already approved by the N-FSA, BoD in STB to sign it off. ABGSCe way ahead of cons. for adj. EPS and capital distribution

Sell Health - likely to increase BB

Agreed to sell its 50% owned health insurer to its co-partner. Book a gain of NOK 1.1bn (NOK 2.43/share) with ~0.6% EPS effect. Should strengthen future BB plans, we are ~30 to >100% above cons.

Good entry point to surf the buyback wave

High solvency makes capital repatriation front-loaded. Trim adj. EPS'23e -9%, 24e -2% on frequency and higher costs. BUY a higher interest rate winner at a good entry point.

Q2: initiate two BB programs, miss on earnings

Launch BB of NOK 1bn in two tranches as solvency 196%. Adj PTP -13%/-8% and cash EPS -12%/-6% vs. ABGe/Cons. Cons. est. rev: down 1-4%; stock down 2-6% given financials.

Heads-up for Q2 report 14 July

Expect another buyback program of NOK 500m

Q2e: result before amortisation NOK 887m and solvency ~188%. Adj. EPS fine-tuned, while solvency up with higher LT rates. BUY into AUM growth, profit sharing and capital distribution story.