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ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
DNORD-DK D/S NORDEN

TP down due to lower trading margins

Lower guidance, lower trading margins. '24e EBITDA of USD 510m, cons. at USD 560m. TP DKK 412 (448) – P/SOP 0.90x.

02/09/24 February 9, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
DNORD-DK D/S NORDEN

Guidance ~40% below consensus

Net profit of USD 43m (ABGSCe 62m, cons 55m). Expecting trading margin "Materially lower" than FY'23. Weak share price reaction warranted.

02/08/24 February 8, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
DNORD-DK D/S NORDEN

Minor revisions for Q4

Minor revisions for Q4, applying our new tanker and dry bulk outlook for '24 and '25. '24e EBITDA of USD 661m, cons. at USD 577m. TP DKK 448 (471) – P/SOP 0.97x.

01/31/24 January 31, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
DNORD-DK D/S NORDEN

Weaker trading margins

Expecting trading margin "significantly lower" than the historical average. '24e net profit of USD 309m, consensus at USD 312m. TP DKK 471 (500) – P/SOP 0.97x.

11/03/23 November 3, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
DNORD-DK D/S NORDEN

Q3 beat, but H1'24 trading margins down

Adj. net profit of USD 91m (ABGSCe 78m, cons 76m). Expecting trading margin "significantly lower" than the hist. average. Weak share price reaction warranted.

11/02/23 November 2, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
HSHIP-NO Himalaya Shippi...
DNORD-DK D/S NORDEN ... (+6)

Dry bulk: Demand is back, rates about to follow

Demand growth now back in positive territory and well above low fleet growth, which should drive dry bulk rates and vessel prices higher.

HSHIP-NO HIMALAYA SHIPPING LTD.
DNORD-DK D/S NORDEN
2020-NO 2020 BULKERS LTD.
GOGL-NO GOLDEN OCEAN GROUP
BELCO-NO BELSHIPS ASA
KCC-NO KLAVENESS COMBINATION CARRIERS
10/12/23 October 12, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
DNORD-DK D/S NORDEN

Depending on trading performance

Demand growth and low ordering make for higher dry bulk rates in '24-25e. '24e net profit of USD 354m, cons. at USD 324m. TP DKK 500 (510) – P/NAV 1.00x.

10/12/23 October 12, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
DNORD-DK D/S NORDEN

Minor estimate changes

Guidance narrowed, minor estimate changes. '23e net profit of USD 418m, cons. at USD 413m. TP DKK 510 (556) – P/NAV 0.79x.

08/10/23 August 10, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
DNORD-DK D/S NORDEN

Guidance narrowed, net profit of USD 360-420m for '23

Net profit of USD 150m (ABGSCe 105m, cons 130m). Guidance reiterated, net profit of USD 330-430m for '23. Share up 1-3% vs peers.

08/10/23 August 10, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
DNORD-DK D/S NORDEN

Minor changes to Q2 estimates

Dry bulk fundamentals better than suggested in spot rates. '23e net profit of USD 431m, cons. at USD 414m. TP DKK 556 (550) – P/NAV 0.71x.

06/30/23 June 30, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
DNORD-DK D/S NORDEN

Tankers strong and dry bulk improving

Market outlook remains strong. '23e net profit of USD 430m, cons. at USD 386m. TP DKK 550 (573) – P/NAV 0.79x.

05/04/23 May 4, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
DNORD-DK D/S NORDEN

Beat on EPS and DPS

Net profit of USD 150m (ABGSCe 105m, cons 130m). Guidance reiterated, net profit of USD 330-430m for '23. Share up 1-3% vs peers.

05/03/23 May 3, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
DNORD-DK D/S NORDEN
2020-NO 2020 Bulkers Lt... ... (+5)

Dry bulk: Demand growth returns in '23e

Demand growth set to turn positive this year, and with an all-time low order book-to-fleet ratio of ~7%, we expect dry bulk rates to appreciate strongly in 2024-25e.

DNORD-DK D/S NORDEN
2020-NO 2020 BULKERS LTD.
GOGL-NO GOLDEN OCEAN GROUP
BELCO-NO BELSHIPS ASA
KCC-NO KLAVENESS COMBINATION CARRIERS
04/13/23 April 13, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
DNORD-DK D/S NORDEN

Thriving on volatility

Demand growth returns in '23e and '24-25e is looking good. '23e net profit of USD 390m, cons. at USD 380m. TP DKK 573 (574) – P/NAV 0.91x.

04/13/23 April 13, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
DNORD-DK D/S NORDEN

Harvesting from its long term strategy

'23e net profit up 35% to USD 376m (guidance USD 330m-430m). Nearly twice as much tanker as dry bulk exposure. TP DKK 574 (433) – reiterate BUY.

03/27/23 March 27, 2023 1 EN
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