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ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Progress, but no great leaps yet

No notable news in the Q1 report. ABGSC '25e EBITDA +28% vs. consensus. TP USD 40 (40), FLNG contracts remain key catalysts.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Q1 as expected, limited news on FLNG

Adj. EBITDA of USD 64m (ABGSCe at USD 66m, cons. at USD 67m). No notable news for FLNG, project start-up expected in 2027. Share to trade flat vs. peers.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Attractive risk/reward for patient investors

Minor changes to near-term estimates, Gimi contractual start expected in Q1'25. ABGSC '25e EBITDA +26% vs. cons. TP USD 40, FLNG contracts remain key catalysts.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

As expected, only minor changes

Minor changes, new TC as expected. ABGSC '24e EBITDA in line with consensus. TP of NOK 156 (151) – BUY.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

No surprises

EBITDA of USD 63m (ABGSCe at USD 65m, cons at USD 63m). No material news, Q2 mid-range guidance slightly below ABGSCe. Share to trade in-line with peers.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Overproduction reason for beat vs cons.

Reported EBITDA of USD 108m (ABGSCe at USD 77m, cons. at USD 73m). No more MKII capex before commited gas field and debt financing. Share to trade flat vs. peers.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Minor revisions

Minor changes to estimates, waiting for chartering news. ABGSC '24e EBITDA in line with consensus. TP of NOK 151 (157) – BUY.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Slight beat, but no charter news for newbuilds

EBITDA USD 74m, 4% above ABGSCe and guidance. No news on newbuild employment. Share to trade in-line with peers.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Still awaiting news

Estimates down on lower TTF and Brent forward rates. ABGSCe '25e EBITDA +6% vs. cons ensus. TP USD 40 (41), FLNG contracts remain key catalysts.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Too cheap

Tight again from '26e. Still waiting for chartering news - a potential share price catalyst. TP of NOK 157 (183) – BUY.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Still waiting for fixing of newbuilds

Minor estimate adjustments - still waiting for chartering news. ABGSCe Q4 EBITDA +7% vs. cons. TP of NOK 183 (182) – BUY.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Q3 as expected, no news on newbuild employment

EBITDA USD 67m, in-line with ABGSCe and cons. No news on newbuild employment. Share to trade in-line with peers.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Setback from postponement of Gimi

Gimi start-up postponed from Q1 to Q4'24. ABGSCe '24e EBITDA -18% vs. consensus. TP USD 41 (42), FLNG contracts remain key catalysts.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

No surprises on the conference call

Reported EBITDA of USD 108m (ABGSCe at USD 77m, cons. at USD 73m). No more MKII capex before commited gas field and debt financing. Share to trade flat vs. peers.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Still waiting for a FLNG contract

Q4 down, long-term unchanged. ABGSCe '24e EBITDA +19% vs. consensus. TP USD 42, FLNG contracts remain key catalysts.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Minor adjustments, waiting for news

Minor adjustments going forward. ABGSCe Q3 EBITDA in line with consensus. TP of NOK 182 (163) – BUY.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Q2 slightly below, no news on long-term employment

Adj. EBITDA USD 64m (-5% vs. ABGSC, -4% vs. cons.). "Multiple potential charterers seeking work for the Newbuilds". Share to trade down 0-1% relative to peers.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Supported by higher oil and gas prices

Updated forward curves, ABGSCe '24e EBITDA +15% vs. consensus. TP USD 42 (42), FLNG contracts remain key catalysts.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

No significant news

Adj. EBITDA of USD 83m (ABGSCe at USD 106m, cons. at USD 72m). Heads of terms signed with NNPC. Share to trade flat vs. peers.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Soon to enter fixing season

Wide spread in brokers' TC quotes. '24e and '25e EBITDA up 6% and 24%. TP of NOK 163 (166) — BUY.

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