Q1: muted top-line but adj. EBIT up 20% y-o-y

Q1e: 3% organic top-line growth driven by NL and B2B. Unfavourable regulatory changes in NL unlikely to pass, in our view. Keep HOLD on neutral risk-reward with SEK 130 cash offer.

Weak Swedish March data

Swedish revenue down 10% y-o-y in Feb

Swedish revenue off to a soft start in '24

Unchanged 2024 outlook

Limited surprises in the Q4 report except for some one-off items. Unchanged 2024 outlook triggers limited revisions. Keep HOLD on neutral risk-reward with SEK 130 cash offer.

Q4 pre-announced, trading update slightly soft

Neutral risk-reward - down to HOLD

Solid Q4 beat, but '24e-'25e EBITDA only up 1%. Tender offer valid through ~10 months, share trading 6% below bid. Down to HOLD (Buy) - limited potential of a higher bid.

Cash offer of SEK 130

FDJ cash offer confirmed - price not announced

Strong earnings growth despite full NL comps

Q4e: EBITDA to grow 34% y-o-y despite full NL comps. Strong '24e-'25e earnings CAGR of 32% to drive the share. Great value at 11-8x '24e-'25e P/E in SBB scenario – keep BUY.

Swe Q4 revenue up 6% q-o-q

Swe November revenue sees improving delta

Trough earnings and value support – BUY

Soft Q3, but we appreciate the strategic update direction. Weak performance offset by savings – limited revisions. Strong value support and further initiatives could come: BUY.

Many variables resulting in limited revisions

Strategic review scenarios: pot. EPS upgrades

Strategic review update 29 Nov. in conjunction with the Q3 report. Two operational actions could raise cons. '24e EPS by 26%. BUY on SR outcome & strong value support despite weak growth.

Weak Oct revenue in Sweden, but mind low SB margin

Kindred's Swe Q3 sales down 9% q-o-q

Time flies

Q3e: underlying growth to remain soft, NL comps coming in. Minor revisions - we are 9-10% below cons on '23e-'24e adj. EBIT. Valuation support is strong, however, w/ SR outcome as a trigger.

Soft Swedish revenue in August

CEO fireside chat — Solid appearance