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ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+5)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth
  • Stian Wibstad

Q1'24 sector preview

We expect strong Q1 reports and bullish management teams. Oil price assumptions up, near-term gas price slightly down. Best risk/reward in AKRBP, VAR, IPC, TGS, ODL, DOFG and SUBC.

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen

Future AKSO starting its earnings acceleration

We model NOK 751m in Q1 EBITDA. No announced awards in the quarter, but robust backlog. Focus on capital allocation, but news unlikely - BUY, TP NOK 55.

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen

Look beyond the dividend noise

Strong operations in Q4 and the outlook keeps improving. Overcomplicating the capital allocation issue.

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+5)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth
  • Stian Wibstad

Q4'23 sector preview

Q4 reports to show improvements and management to be bullish, but investors fear lower oil prices and poorer fundamentals ahead. Best risk/reward in AKRBP, EQNR, TGS, ODL, BORR, DOFG, SUB (all BUY).

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen

Q4 will make the case cleaner

Case crystallizing in Q4. Focus on the JV, dividend and medium-term cash flow generation - BUY.

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+5)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth
  • Stian Wibstad

Crude Quarterly Q4'23: near-term, oil price is in OPEC's hands

OPEC will have to extend cuts through Q1'24 before it can increase production. Oil market fundamentals look strong medium- to long-term. Both E&P and oil service shares look highly attractive.

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen

Stronger start for Future AKSO

Solid Q3, driven by Subsea. Carving out Subsea, lifting Future AKSO estimates. Attractive valuation and dividend potential - BUY

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen

A cleaner case in the coming months

We expect a solid Q3, similar to last quarter. Orders dropping, entering the Subsea JV. Reiterate BUY, TP of NOK 54.

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+5)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth
  • Stian Wibstad

Crude Quarterly Q3'23: higher for longer

Oil market fundamentals look strong medium-to-long term. Near term, it all hangs on OPEC. Both E&P and oil service shares look highly attractive.

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen

Subsea drives estimates and valuation

Strong Q2 with Subsea explaining the beat. Robust backlog coverage drives '23 guidance upgrade. Raising estimates - BUY, TP of NOK 54 (52).

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen

Valuation uplift potential in next six months

We expect another decent quarter in Q2. Uncertainties to be resolved in the next six months, and this could trigger a revaluation — BUY, TP NOK 52.

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen

Valuation out of sync with fundamentals

Order intake was NOK 12.5bn, ~NOK 1bn higher than our estimate. We maintain BUY and a TP of NOK 52.

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen

Floating on a massive order backlog

Strong revenue growth in Q1e. Visibility from backlog, Subsea JV performing well. All about execution - BUY, TP NOK 52.

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