Dry bulk fundamentals better than suggested in current spot rates. Near-term estimates down, long-term unchanged. TP of NOK 216 (214) – current P/NAV of 0.69x.
Demand growth set to turn positive this year, and with an all-time low order book-to-fleet ratio of ~7%, we expect dry bulk rates to appreciate strongly in 2024-25e.
Demand growth returns in '23e and '24-25e is looking good. ABGSCe 59% above cons. '24e EBITDA, 92% above for '25e. TP of NOK 208 (216) – current P/NAV of 0.69x.