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ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Still at ~10% discount to current NAV

Minor adjustments - Q1e up, long-term reiterated. ABGSC '25e EBITDA +73% vs. cons. TP of NOK 225 (214) – P/NAV of 0.89x.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

As expected, limited revisions expected

Adj. EBITDA of USD 14m (ABGSCe at USD 13m, cons. at USD 13m). No material changes to estimates - balanced outlook. Share to trade in-line with peers.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Dry bulk: It's the fleet growth, stupid!

Rates have now appreciated, but new orders have not followed, and low fleet growth is enough for continued optimism.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Exemplifying the power of payouts

It's the fleet growth, stupid! ABGSC '25e EBITDA +57% vs. cons. TP of NOK 214 (189) – P/NAV of 0.91x

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Dividends to treble from 2023e to 2024e

Market strength is driven by fundamentals. ABGSCe '24 EBITDA +54% vs. cons. TP of NOK 172 (189) – P/NAV of 0.86x

ABGSC Strategy Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Strategy Research
  • Bengt Jonassen

Norway: Best Ideas Q4'23

Best ideas are; AKRBP, MOWI, STB, 2020, BONH, DOFG, ENTRA, ELMRA and KOMPL

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

No changes near term nor long term

Minor adjustment – Q4e EBITDA of USD 17m. ABGSCe '24 EBITDA +68% vs. cons. TP of NOK 189 (174) – P/NAV of 0.67x.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Dry bulk: Demand is back, rates about to follow

Demand growth now back in positive territory and well above low fleet growth, which should drive dry bulk rates and vessel prices higher.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Dividend yield of ~40% for 2024e

Demand growth and low ordering make for higher dry bulk rates in '24-25e. ABGSCe '24e EBITDA +55% vs. cons. TP of NOK 174 (219) – P/NAV of 0.73x.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

"Most favourable supply side in decades"

Minor adjustments to estimates. ABGSCe '24e EBITDA +70% vs. cons. TP of NOK 219 (210) – current P/NAV of 0.73x. BUY.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Short-term slightly up, long-term unchanged

ABGSC estimates up prior to Wednesday 's Q2 report. ABGSCe '24e EBITDA +70% vs. cons ensus. TP of NOK 210 (216) – current P/NAV of 0.77X.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Near-term estimates down, long-term unchanged

Dry bulk fundamentals better than suggested in current spot rates. Near-term estimates down, long-term unchanged. TP of NOK 216 (214) – current P/NAV of 0.69x.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Near-term estimates up, long-term unchanged

Lifting near-term estimates. ABGSCe is 62% above cons. for '24e EBITDA, and 83% above for '25e. TP of NOK 214 (208) — current P/NAV of 0.66x.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Dry bulk: Demand growth returns in '23e

Demand growth set to turn positive this year, and with an all-time low order book-to-fleet ratio of ~7%, we expect dry bulk rates to appreciate strongly in 2024-25e.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Capes have most upside among the bulkers

Demand growth returns in '23e and '24-25e is looking good. ABGSCe 59% above cons. '24e EBITDA, 92% above for '25e. TP of NOK 208 (216) – current P/NAV of 0.69x.

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