This week, we're taking a closer look at Ørsted. Despite challenges in the last few years, we now argue Ørsted is back on the right path. We rate the stock a BUY, and set a 12-month TP of DKK 450/sh.
Q1e: results before amortisation of NOK 1.17bn and solvency ~191%. Estimates up slightly on AUM and more profit sharing (Sweden). Earnings growth and SBB key focus; BUY, NOK TP 125 (120).
This week , we provide some insight into the marginal pricing of electricity markets in Europe, as well as calculation details and a simple calculator where investors can enter their own assumptions.
We expect strong Q1 reports and bullish management teams. Oil price assumptions up, near-term gas price slightly down. Best risk/reward in AKRBP, VAR, IPC, TGS, ODL, DOFG and SUBC.
We expect Q1 FCF of NOK 15.9/share. Look out for comments about Johan Sverdrup and Edvard Grieg. A clear BUY, TP to NOK 365 (345) on higher oil price assumptions.