Small Cap Miner - May 2024

Q2 estimates down, but long-term bullish

Short-term estimates down, long-term unchanged. ABGSCe 89% above cons. on '25e EBITDA. TP of NOK 200 (204) – P/NAV 0.89x.

Weak Q2 guiding, while beat on Q1 DPS

Adj. EBITDA USD 119m (ABGSC at USD 109m, cons at USD 116m). Q2'24 guidance below cons and ABGSCe. Stock down ~1-3% relative to peers.

Still at ~10% discount to current NAV

Minor adjustments - Q1e up, long-term reiterated. ABGSC '25e EBITDA +73% vs. cons. TP of NOK 225 (214) – P/NAV of 0.89x.

As expected, limited revisions expected

Adj. EBITDA of USD 14m (ABGSCe at USD 13m, cons. at USD 13m). No material changes to estimates - balanced outlook. Share to trade in-line with peers.

Dry bulk: It's the fleet growth, stupid!

Rates have now appreciated, but new orders have not followed, and low fleet growth is enough for continued optimism.

20 year low fleet growth expected in 2024-2026e

It's the fleet growth, stupid! 4% and 102% above cons. for '24e and '25e. TP of NOK 204 (147) – P/NAV 0.85x.

Exemplifying the power of payouts

It's the fleet growth, stupid! ABGSC '25e EBITDA +57% vs. cons. TP of NOK 214 (189) – P/NAV of 0.91x

Capesize rates now at 14-year high

Short-term down, long-term reiterated. 23% and 114% above cons. for '24e and '25e. TP of NOK 150 (147) – P/NAV 0.86x.

Beat for Q4'23, solid guiding for Q1'24

Adj. EBITDA USD 122m (ABGSC at USD 113m, cons at USD 113m). Q1'24 guidance above cons. Stock up 2-4% relative to peers.

Purchase options further into the money

More fixed on lower rates, Lighthouse revised down. ABGSCe 21% above cons. for ‘25e EBITDA. TP NOK 31/sh (33) – BUY.

Above expectations driven by Lighthouse

EBITDA of USD 41m (-2% vs. ABGSC, +13% vs. cons.). Mostly fixed at slightly lower levels. Positive share price reaction warranted.

Small revisions to large estimates

Q1e up on guidance, showing the value of real options. ABGSCe 59% above cons. for ’25e net profit. BUY, TP NOK 125 (121) – P/NAV 1.02x.

Impressive performance and increasing fanbase

Q4'23 EBITDA USD 37m, much as pre-announced. Q1'24 average fleet TCE earnings above cons. and ABGSCe. Share to trade up 1-2% vs peers.

Loaded with much-wanted LR1 exposure

Q4 TCE earnings pre-announced, adjusting long-term estimates. ABGSCe 34% above cons. for ’25e EBITDA. TP NOK 121 (135) – P/NAV 1.06x.

TP down due to lower trading margins

Lower guidance, lower trading margins. '24e EBITDA of USD 510m, cons. at USD 560m. TP DKK 412 (448) – P/SOP 0.90x.

Guidance ~40% below consensus

Net profit of USD 43m (ABGSCe 62m, cons 55m). Expecting trading margin "Materially lower" than FY'23. Weak share price reaction warranted.

Still attractively valued at P/NAV of 0.85x

Much as expected, positive outlook

Minor revisions for Q4

Minor revisions for Q4, applying our new tanker and dry bulk outlook for '24 and '25. '24e EBITDA of USD 661m, cons. at USD 577m. TP DKK 448 (471) – P/SOP 0.97x.