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ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad

Rates still going strong

Impressive new contracts and increasing dividends point to continued solid rates despite Saudi suspensions. EBITDA up 2%/3%/16% for '24/'25e/'26e, BUY and TP of NOK 85 (75).

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen

Good operational performance in Q1

Solid uptime and earnings in Q1. Barossa remains under control, but not completed yet. Another quarter with slightly less worry - BUY, TP NOK 38 (32).

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth

Estimates down on lowered production assumptions

Q1 figures broadly as expected. Export terminal delay lowers production assumptions. Short-term liquidity risk prevails.

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad

Cash flow and market outlook remain strong

Q1 EBITDA at USD 85m, 4% above cons. Higher capex but FCF remains very strong, as does the outlook BUY, TP of NOK 73 (75)

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad

Navigating a challenging '24 very well

Underlying Q1 numbers fairly in line. Maintains guidance and increases visibility. Minor estimate changes - BUY, TP NOK 670 (unch.)

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen

Delivering steady improvements

Solid Q1, we increase '24e EBITDA by 2%. 2024 guidance reiterated, looks robust. Still attractive - Note the reverse share split - BUY - TP NOK 37 (1.5).

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • John Olaisen
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth
ABGSC Renewable Energy Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Renewable Energy Research
  • Åsne Holsen
  • Daniel Vårdal Haugland
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • John Olaisen
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • John Olaisen
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+5)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth
  • Stian Wibstad

Q1'24 sector preview

We expect strong Q1 reports and bullish management teams. Oil price assumptions up, near-term gas price slightly down. Best risk/reward in AKRBP, VAR, IPC, TGS, ODL, DOFG and SUBC.

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen

Stronger earnings momentum from Q2e

We estimate USD 156m in Q1 EBITDA. Book-to-bill ~1x in Q1e, solid tender pipeline. Still attractive cash flow yield — BUY, TP NOK 220 (200).

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