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ABGSC Energy Research ... (+7)
  • ABGSC Energy Research
  • Daniel Vårdal Haugland
  • John Olaisen
  • Lars Trongaard Brattli
  • Martin Mauseth
  • Njål Kleiven
  • Stian Wibstad
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+6)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Stian Wibstad

Crude Quarterly Q3'24: Lower oil price

Oil inventory draws for the rest of 2024. IEA is wrong – peak demand is not imminent. Both E&P and oil service shares look highly attractive.

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad

Focus on the PBR rigs

Lowering '24 estimates in line with guidance. Focus on the PBR rigs and West Phoenix. BUY, TP NOK 650 (670)

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad

Becoming a pure-play deepwater driller

Carving out jackups from estimates. Focus on West Phoenix and the PBR rigs. 5.1-3.0x EBITDA and 12-26% '25e-'26e FCF to EV yield: BUY.

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+5)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth
  • Stian Wibstad

Crude Quarterly Q2'24: tighter oil market ahead

Oil inventory draws for the rest of 2024. IEA is wrong – peak demand is not imminent. Both E&P and oil service shares look highly attractive.

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth

Estimate changes from Crude Quarterly, 26 June

In our 26 June Crude Quarterly report, we update our oil and gas price assumptions for our covered E&Ps. See the report for more details on our new oil market estimates and our updated price assumptions.

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad

Rates still going strong

Impressive new contracts and increasing dividends point to continued solid rates despite Saudi suspensions. EBITDA up 2%/3%/16% for '24/'25e/'26e, BUY and TP of NOK 85 (75).

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen

Good operational performance in Q1

Solid uptime and earnings in Q1. Barossa remains under control, but not completed yet. Another quarter with slightly less worry - BUY, TP NOK 38 (32).

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth

Estimates down on lowered production assumptions

Q1 figures broadly as expected. Export terminal delay lowers production assumptions. Short-term liquidity risk prevails.

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • John Olaisen
  • Martin Mauseth
ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad

Cash flow and market outlook remain strong

Q1 EBITDA at USD 85m, 4% above cons. Higher capex but FCF remains very strong, as does the outlook BUY, TP of NOK 73 (75)

ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • Stian Wibstad
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