Q1 trading update: Volumes 5% below

Downgrades sober the spot price party

Quality downgrades partly offset stronger spot prices, so our Q1 estimates are up only 3% ahead of the trading updates. Consensus a tad optimistic – we are still 6% below on Q1 EBIT.

Trading update to show downside risk to Q1

We expect EBIT of NOK 783m, -6% vs consensus. Key risk is prices (i.e., downgrade share and trout volume). Attractive at '24e-'25e P/E of 10x-9x. BUY, TP of NOK 59.

Norway: Best ideas Q1'24

Growth momentum picking up. Increased risk on very high US valuation. Best long ideas are: NHY, STB, SUBC, AFG, BONH, NAS, LINK, LSG, TGS, WAWI.

Norway: Updated traffic lights suggest lower growth

Narrative is changing

'24e EBIT +1% as raised VAP margins offset wild catch. Turning a corner; improvements gradually kicking in. '24e-25e P/E 10x-9x; BUY reiterated, TP of NOK 59 (57).

Q4: 16% EBIT beat and higher DPS

One step forward, one step back

Higher salmon prices as biology goes from bad to worse, but muted '24e EBIT impact; flipside is volumes down and costs up. The playing field is changing, but we remain sector BUYers.

Dark before dawn

We estimate Q4 EBIT of NOK 620m (-1% vs FactSet cons.) '24e EBIT unchanged as lower volumes offset higher prices. Look to the '24e-25e P/E of 10x-9x. BUY, TP NOK 57 (59).

Negative preliminary view from European Commission on anti-trust inves...

Q4 trading update: Volumes 6% above

Q4'23 harvest volumes 6% above cons and ABGSCe. However, LSG notes issues from string jellyfish with negative impact on performance. In sum, we see downside risk to Q4'23e and FY'23e EBIT

Turning a corner

'23e/24e EBIT -8%/-4% on Farming and Wild catch. Turnarounds take time, but gradual improvements from '24. At '23e-24e P/E 14x-10x, we reiterate BUY, TP NOK of 59 (61)

Q3: EBIT 16% below, '24e guidance -4% vs cons

Recent weakness offers a second chance

Market fundamentals look better than we feared, but sector is down 8% and consensus is now more aligned with us. We thus see improved risk/reward at '23e-24e P/E of 15-12x.

Improvements around the corner

We estimate Q3 EBIT of NOK 661m (-11% vs FactSet consensus). '23e EBIT (core) +8% on prices, while '24e is little changed. Look beyond short-term biological risk at '24e P/E 10x.

Scotland: Deep-dive beneath the surface

An extensive study of Scotland as a farming region. Operational turnarounds are viable, but likely to take time. We continue to favour MOWI and SSF (SALM/LSG JV) over BAKKA.

Q3 trading update: Volumes 2% above

Q3'23 harvest volumes 2% above cons (+8% vs ABGSCe), with deviation vs ABGSCe mainly relates to Region West. All in all, fairly neutral trading update, with limited changes to cons.

A glimmer of hope

We lower '23e-'24e EBIT (core) by -4%/0%. Tough Q3'23, but improvements are just around the corner. '23-'24 PE 14x-10x; BUY reiterated, TP unchanged at NOK 61.

Q2: EBIT 1% above, but lowers guidance

Approaching the inflection point

Sector down 12% on weak spot-price sentiment since May. Some potential negative data points left, but set to turn in H2, and largely reflected with sector at '23e-'24e P/E of 15-12x. Our sector top-pick remains Mowi.