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ABGSC Financials Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Financials Research
  • Jan Erik Gjerland
  • Patrik Brattelius

Improving asset quality on the horizon

Q1 earnings beat driven by falling loan loss ratio. EPS raised by 2-3%, EPS CAGR of 21% (‘23-‘26e). Attractive earnings scenario with supportive valuation.

ABGSC Financials Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Financials Research
  • Jan Erik Gjerland
  • Patrik Brattelius
ABGSC Financials Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Financials Research
  • Jan Erik Gjerland
  • Patrik Brattelius

Strong fundamentals not fully reflected

For Q1’24 we expect operating profit to increase by 20% y-o-y, to SEK 141m. From the monthly trading data, the Credit Cards segment continues to show strong data points, making it the main growth driver.

ABGSC Financials Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Financials Research
  • Jan Erik Gjerland
  • Patrik Brattelius

Loan loss concerns exaggerated

Solid Q4 shows that loan losses worries were exaggerated. Earnings scenario intact, EPS CAGR of 20% (‘23e-‘26e). Attractive valuation, earnings growth set to accelerate: BUY

ABGSC Financials Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Financials Research
  • Jan Erik Gjerland
  • Patrik Brattelius
ABGSC Financials Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Financials Research
  • Jan Erik Gjerland
  • Patrik Brattelius

Earnings growth set to accelerate

Ecommerce & Credit Cards drive lending growth in Q4. Earnings scenario only tweaked, EPS CAGR of 22% (‘23e-‘25e). Too cheap compared to fundamentals – reiterate BUY.

ABGSC Financials Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Financials Research
  • Jan Erik Gjerland
  • Patrik Brattelius

Attractive earnings growth at P/E <7x

Strong NII growth drove earnings beat in Q3. Adj. EPS up by 4-5% for 2024e-2025e on higher NII. Too cheap compared to fundamentals - BUY.

ABGSC Financials Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Financials Research
  • Jan Erik Gjerland
  • Patrik Brattelius
ABGSC Financials Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Financials Research
  • Jan Erik Gjerland
  • Patrik Brattelius

Strong fundamentals not fairly priced – BUY

Credit Cards continue to drive growth in Q3'23e. Positive revisions into Q3'23e, EPS CAGR of 19% (‘22-‘25e). Attractive valuation; earnings growth set to accelerate – up to BUY.

ABGSC Financials Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Financials Research
  • Jan Erik Gjerland
  • Patrik Brattelius

Trading at a fragile premium

Strong lending growth drove earnings beat in Q2. Adj. EPS up by 2-3% for 2023e-2025e on higher NII. We reiterate HOLD, TP up to SEK 175 (165).

ABGSC Financials Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Financials Research
  • Jan Erik Gjerland
  • Patrik Brattelius
ABGSC Financials Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Financials Research
  • Jan Erik Gjerland
  • Patrik Brattelius

Loan loss worries to hold back sentiment

Strong lending growth in Q2e, driven by Credit Cards. Operating profit up 1-3% for 2024e-2025e. Awaiting a better entry, reiterate HOLD.

ABGSC Financials Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Financials Research
  • Jan Erik Gjerland
  • Patrik Brattelius
ABGSC Financials Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Financials Research
  • Jan Erik Gjerland
  • Patrik Brattelius
ABGSC Financials Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Financials Research
  • Jan Erik Gjerland
  • Patrik Brattelius
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