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ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
DNORD S NORDEN A/S
BELCO BELSHIPS ASA ... (+6)

Dry bulk: It's the fleet growth, stupid!

Rates have now appreciated, but new orders have not followed, and low fleet growth is enough for continued optimism.

DNORD S NORDEN A/S
BELCO BELSHIPS ASA
KCC KLAVENESS COMBINATION CARRIERS
2020-NO 2020 BULKERS LTD.
GOGL-NO GOLDEN OCEAN GROUP
HSHP-NO HIMALAYA SHIPPING LTD.
04/25/24 April 25, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
GOGL-NO Golden Ocean Gr...

20 year low fleet growth expected in 2024-2026e

It's the fleet growth, stupid! 4% and 102% above cons. for '24e and '25e. TP of NOK 204 (147) – P/NAV 0.85x.

GOGL-NO GOLDEN OCEAN GROUP
04/25/24 April 25, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
GOGL-NO Golden Ocean Gr...

Capesize rates now at 14-year high

Short-term down, long-term reiterated. 23% and 114% above cons. for '24e and '25e. TP of NOK 150 (147) – P/NAV 0.86x.

GOGL-NO GOLDEN OCEAN GROUP
02/28/24 February 28, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
GOGL-NO Golden Ocean Gr...

Beat for Q4'23, solid guiding for Q1'24

Adj. EBITDA USD 122m (ABGSC at USD 113m, cons at USD 113m). Q1'24 guidance above cons. Stock up 2-4% relative to peers.

GOGL-NO GOLDEN OCEAN GROUP
02/28/24 February 28, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
GOGL-NO Golden Ocean Gr...

Vessel values on the move

Market strength is driven by fundamentals. 54% and 141% above cons. for '24e and '25e. TP of NOK 147 (148) – P/NAV 0.77x.

GOGL-NO GOLDEN OCEAN GROUP
01/25/24 January 25, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
GOGL-NO Golden Ocean Gr...

A good quarter, and better to come

Minor adjustments – long-term estimates reiterated. 48% and 148% above consensus for '24e and '25e. TP of NOK 148 (145) – P/NAV 0.72x.

GOGL-NO GOLDEN OCEAN GROUP
11/21/23 November 21, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
GOGL-NO Golden Ocean Gr...

Beat on Q3, solid guiding, positive outlook

Adj. EBITDA USD 79m (ABGSC at USD 60m, cons at USD 69m). Q4'23 guidance in-line with ABGSCe. Stock up 1-3% relative to peers.

GOGL-NO GOLDEN OCEAN GROUP
11/21/23 November 21, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
HSHIP-NO Himalaya Shippi...
DNORD-DK D/S NORDEN ... (+6)

Dry bulk: Demand is back, rates about to follow

Demand growth now back in positive territory and well above low fleet growth, which should drive dry bulk rates and vessel prices higher.

HSHIP-NO HIMALAYA SHIPPING LTD.
DNORD-DK D/S NORDEN
2020-NO 2020 BULKERS LTD.
GOGL-NO GOLDEN OCEAN GROUP
BELCO-NO BELSHIPS ASA
KCC-NO KLAVENESS COMBINATION CARRIERS
10/12/23 October 12, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
GOGL-NO Golden Ocean Gr...

Unwarranted discount, unambiguous upside

Demand growth and low ordering make for higher dry bulk rates in '24-25e. 46% and 148% above cons. for '24e and '25e. TP of NOK 145 (188) – P/NAV 0.74x.

GOGL-NO GOLDEN OCEAN GROUP
10/12/23 October 12, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
GOGL-NO Golden Ocean Gr...

Dry bulk demand is fundamentally strong

Short-term lower, long-term unchanged. 82% and 155% above cons. for '24e and '25e. TP of NOK 188 (193) – P/NAV 0.67x.

GOGL-NO GOLDEN OCEAN GROUP
08/30/23 August 30, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
GOGL-NO Golden Ocean Gr...

Q2 as expected, Q3 guidance below cons.

Adj. EBITDA USD 76m (-2% vs. ABGSC, +4% vs. cons). Q3'23 guidance below ABGSCe and cons. Stock down 1-2% relative to peers.

GOGL-NO GOLDEN OCEAN GROUP
08/29/23 August 29, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
GOGL-NO Golden Ocean Gr...

In line with cons. for Q2, P/NAV 0.62x

Dry bulk fundamentals better than suggested in spot rates. Minor adjustments to Q2 estimates. TP of NOK 193 (192) – P/NAV 0.62x.

GOGL-NO GOLDEN OCEAN GROUP
06/30/23 June 30, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
GOGL-NO Golden Ocean Gr...

Lifting near-term estimates

We raise our Q2 estimates. ABGSCe 69% and 139% above cons. for ’24-'25e EBITDA. TP of NOK 192 (176) – P/NAV 0.66x.

GOGL-NO GOLDEN OCEAN GROUP
05/16/23 May 16, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
GOGL-NO Golden Ocean Gr...

Q1 adj EBITDA 20% above cons

Adj. EBITDA USD 50m (21% vs. ABGSC, 20% vs. cons). Q2'23 guidance above ABGSCe, in-line with cons. Stock up 1-2% relative to peers.

GOGL-NO GOLDEN OCEAN GROUP
05/16/23 May 16, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
DNORD-DK D/S NORDEN
2020-NO 2020 Bulkers Lt... ... (+5)

Dry bulk: Demand growth returns in '23e

Demand growth set to turn positive this year, and with an all-time low order book-to-fleet ratio of ~7%, we expect dry bulk rates to appreciate strongly in 2024-25e.

DNORD-DK D/S NORDEN
2020-NO 2020 BULKERS LTD.
GOGL-NO GOLDEN OCEAN GROUP
BELCO-NO BELSHIPS ASA
KCC-NO KLAVENESS COMBINATION CARRIERS
04/13/23 April 13, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen
PREMIUM
GOGL-NO Golden Ocean Gr...

Well positioned into the upswing

Demand growth returns in '23e and '24-25e is looking good. ABGSCe 59% and 123% above cons. for ’24-'25e EBITDA. TP of NOK 176 (182) – P/NAV 0.72x - BUY.

GOGL-NO GOLDEN OCEAN GROUP
04/13/23 April 13, 2023 1 EN
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