Purchase options further into the money

More fixed on lower rates, Lighthouse revised down. ABGSCe 21% above cons. for ‘25e EBITDA. TP NOK 31/sh (33) – BUY.

Above expectations driven by Lighthouse

EBITDA of USD 41m (-2% vs. ABGSC, +13% vs. cons.). Mostly fixed at slightly lower levels. Positive share price reaction warranted.

Asset price appreciation pushing purchase options further into the mon...

Minor estimate revisions​

Mostly fixed, minor estimate revisions. ABGSCe 22-33% above consensus for ’24e-‘25e EBITDA. TP NOK 34/sh (33) – BUY.

Mostly fixed, minor est. revisions

Net profit of USD 15m (0% vs. ABGSC, 3% vs. cons.). Mostly fixed, minor est. revisions. Neutral to slight negative share price reaction

Dry bulk: Demand is back, rates about to follow

Demand growth now back in positive territory and well above low fleet growth, which should drive dry bulk rates and vessel prices higher.

Underappreciated optionality

Demand growth, low ordering make for higher rates in '24-'25. ABGSCe 15-39% above consensus for ’24e-‘25e EBITDA. TP NOK 33/sh (40) – BUY.

Accretive newbuilding orders

Expanding its NB programme with 2x Ultramax. Q3'23e EBITDA USD 35m (cons. USD 40m). TP NOK 40/sh (37) – BUY.

More attractive newbuildings with optionality

EBITDA of USD 40m (1% vs. ABGSC, -2% vs. cons.). Expanding its NB program with 2x Ultramax. Share to trade flat vs. peers.

Estimates down on lower Lighthouse contrib.

Dry bulk fundamentals better than suggested in spot rates. Q2'23e EBITDA USD 40m (cons. USD 45m). TP NOK 37/sh (37) – BUY.

TP up on accretive acquisitions of more options

Room for higher dividends. Q2'23e EBITDA USD 45m (cons. USD 44m). TP NOK 37/sh (35) - BUY.

Miss for Q1, but solid dividends, Q2 guidance and outlook

EBITDA of USD 44m (-9% vs. ABGSC, -2% vs. cons.). Reiterates positive long-term outlook. Share price down 0-2%

Dry bulk: Demand growth returns in '23e

Demand growth set to turn positive this year, and with an all-time low order book-to-fleet ratio of ~7%, we expect dry bulk rates to appreciate strongly in 2024-25e.

Small is also beautiful

Q1'23e EBITDA of USD 48m (cons. USD 45m). TP NOK 35/sh (35) — BUY.