Small revisions to large estimates

Q1e up on guidance, showing the value of real options. ABGSCe 59% above cons. for ’25e net profit. BUY, TP NOK 125 (121) – P/NAV 1.02x.

Impressive performance and increasing fanbase

Q4'23 EBITDA USD 37m, much as pre-announced. Q1'24 average fleet TCE earnings above cons. and ABGSCe. Share to trade up 1-2% vs peers.

Loaded with much-wanted LR1 exposure

Q4 TCE earnings pre-announced, adjusting long-term estimates. ABGSCe 34% above cons. for ’25e EBITDA. TP NOK 121 (135) – P/NAV 1.06x.

No surprises, estimates reiterated

Q4e slightly down, long-term estimates reiterated. ABGSCe 34% above cons. for ’24e EBITDA. TP NOK 135 (132) – P/NAV 0.74x.

Q3 much as pre-announced, still strong outlook

Q3'23 EBITDA USD 28m, in-line with pre-reported numbers. Q4'23 average fleet TCE earnings slightly below cons. and ABGSCe. Share to trade up 0-1%.

Dry bulk: Demand is back, rates about to follow

Demand growth now back in positive territory and well above low fleet growth, which should drive dry bulk rates and vessel prices higher.

A dry bulk recovery is the only part missing

Demand growth and low ordering make for higher dry bulk rates in '24-'25. ABGSCe 30% above cons. for ’24e EBITDA. TP NOK 132 (146) – P/NAV 0.73x.

Q3e up, long-term estimates reiterated

Q3e up, long-term estimates reiterated. ABGSCe 45% above cons. for ’24e EBITDA. TP NOK 146 (144) – P/NAV 0.72x.

Roughly as pre-announced

Q2'23 EBITDA USD 30m, in-line with Business Update from July. Q3'23 average fleet TCE earnings in-line with cons., above ABGSCe. Share to trade flat vs. peers.

Dry bulk to turn in H2'23

Dry bulk fundamentals better than suggested in spot rates. ABGSCe 51% above cons. for ’24e EBITDA. TP NOK 144 (148) – P/NAV 0.66x.

Building a fleet for the future

3 NB CABUs, to be delivered in Q1'26-Q3'26. ABGSCe is 51% above cons. for ’24e EBITDA. BUY, TP NOK 148 (152) – P/NAV 0.68x.

TP up on higher cash flow

Q2'23 average fleet TCE earnings of USD 32,700-34,200/day. ABGSCe 47% above cons. for ’24e EBITDA. TP NOK 152 (143) – P/NAV 0.71x.

Best quarter ever, lifting dividends

Dry bulk: Demand growth returns in '23e

Demand growth set to turn positive this year, and with an all-time low order book-to-fleet ratio of ~7%, we expect dry bulk rates to appreciate strongly in 2024-25e.

EBITDA will almost double from '23e to '24e

Demand growth returns in '23e and '24-25e is looking good. ABGSCe 71% above cons. for ’24e EBITDA. TP NOK 143 (142) – P/NAV 0.77x.