Q1 trading update: Volumes 12% above

Downgrades sober the spot price party

Quality downgrades partly offset stronger spot prices, so our Q1 estimates are up only 3% ahead of the trading updates. Consensus a tad optimistic – we are still 6% below on Q1 EBIT.

Challenges in Q1, but a relative winner

We expect EBIT of NOK 1,899m, +4% vs consensus. Relatively high VAP capacity, but downgrades will still hurt. +20% YTD and '24e-'25e P/E of 17x-15x gives more muted r/r.

Norway: Updated traffic lights suggest lower growth

Comes out dry, even when it's raining

'24e EBIT down 4% on temporary issues in North. Best-in-class farmer with significant growth potential. Warranted premium to peers; BUY, TP of NOK 687 (645).

Q4: DPS +80% vs. cons, but softer guidance

One step forward, one step back

Higher salmon prices as biology goes from bad to worse, but muted '24e EBIT impact; flipside is volumes down and costs up. The playing field is changing, but we remain sector BUYers.

Coming back down to earth

We estimate Q4 EBIT of NOK 1,924m (-3% vs. FactSet cons.). '24e/'25e EBIT is up 1%/13% on higher salmon price estimates. '24e-25e P/E of 15x-14x for a best-in-class farmer: BUY.

Negative preliminary view from European Commission on anti-trust inves...

Q4 trading update: Volumes 1% below pre-guided

Q4 volumes 1% below pre-guidance in Dec'23 update, explained by lower volumes from SalMar Aker Ocean. Downside risk to cons Q4'23e EBIT, but known in Dec. update

A negative, but largely expected, Christmas surprise

Q4’23 volumes likely 6% below consensus and ABGSCe, driven by biological issues (string jellyfish) in Norway. Downside risk to cons Q4'23e EBIT of 9-12% on volumes and margins

Farming wizards

'23e-'24e EBIT higher on better Farming margins. Best-in-class farmer with significant growth potential. Despite the YTD rally, there's still upside; BUY, TP NOK 632 (585).

Blowout quarter; Q3 EBIT +36% vs cons

Recent weakness offers a second chance

Market fundamentals look better than we feared, but sector is down 8% and consensus is now more aligned with us. We thus see improved risk/reward at '23e-24e P/E of 15-12x.

Smooth operator

We estimate Q3 EBIT of NOK 1,740m (+6% vs. FactSet cons.). '23e/'24e EBIT is up 8%/6X% on higher prices and more volumes. Strong earnings growth ahead, '24e P/E of 14x: BUY, TP of NOK 585.

Scotland: Deep-dive beneath the surface

An extensive study of Scotland as a farming region. Operational turnarounds are viable, but likely to take time. We continue to favour MOWI and SSF (SALM/LSG JV) over BAKKA.

Q3 trading update: Volumes 4% above

Q3’23 volumes 4% above consensus, and +8% vs. ABGSCe, explained by higher volumes from Central Norway. All in all, we see upside risk to cons Q3'23e EBIT, but more muted for FY'23e

CMD: Strong organic volume growth and higher synergies

Bursting with confidence

We keep our '23-24e EBIT (core) largely unchanged. CMD to add credibility to an accretive growth story ahead. Attractive valuation at '24e P/E 15x – BUY, TP NOK 559.

Q2: EBIT slightly below, cancel 9% of shares